Podcasts Technology Astral Codex Ten Podcast Against Learning From Dramatic Events

Against Learning From Dramatic Events

Published: Jan. 22, 2024, 10:57 a.m.

Does it matter if COVID was a lab leak?

Here\u2019s an argument against: not many people still argue that lab leaks are impossible. People were definitely doing dangerous work with viruses; Chinese biosafety protocols were definitely mediocre. Maybe the Wuhan Institute had bad luck, and one of the viruses there escaped. Or maybe they had good luck, by sheer coincidence no viruses escaped, and an unrelated pandemic started nearby.

A good Bayesian should start out believing there\u2019s some medium chance of a lab leak pandemic per decade. Then, if COVID was/wasn\u2019t a lab leak, they should make the appropriate small update based on one extra data point. It probably won\u2019t change very much!

I did fake Bayesian math with some plausible numbers, and found that if I started out believing there was a 20% per decade chance of a lab leak pandemic, then if COVID was proven to be a lab leak, I should update to 27.5%, and if COVID was proven not to be a lab leak, I should stay around 19-20%

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/against-learning-from-dramatic-events\xa0