BROADCASTS.com

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/addendum-to-no-evidence-post

The day after I wrote The Phrase \u201cNo Evidence\u201d Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication, FT published this article:

Like many uses of \u201cno evidence\u201d, they meant that one particular study of this complicated question had failed to reject the null hypothesis.

Here\u2019s what happened to Metaculus\u2019 prediction tournament when the same study came out:

The consensus prediction dropped from 72% chance that it was less lethal, to 63% chance. But it quickly recovered, and is now up to 80%.

This is an unusually clear example of the difference between classical and Bayesian ways of thinking.