https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/absurdity-bias-neom-edition
Alexandros M expresses concern about my post on Neom.
My post mostly just makes fun of Neom. My main argument against it is absurdity: a skyscraper the height of WTC1 and the length of Ireland? Come on, that\u2019s absurd!
But isn\u2019t the absurdity heuristic a cognitive bias? Didn\u2019t lots of true things sound absurd before they turned out to be true (eg evolution, quantum mechanics)? Don\u2019t I specifically believe in things many people have found self-evidently absurd (eg the multiverse, AI risk)? Shouldn\u2019t I be more careful about \u201cthis sounds silly to me, so I\u2019m going to make fun of it\u201d?