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https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2020-predictions-calibration-results

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At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them (this year I\u2019m very late). Here are\xa02014,\xa02015,\xa02016,\xa02017,\xa02018, and\xa02019.

And here are the predictions I made for 2020. Some predictions are redacted because they involve my private life or the lives of people close to me. Usually I use strikethrough for things that didn\u2019t happen, but since Substack doesn\u2019t let me strikethrough text or change its color or do anything interesting, I\u2019ve had to turn the ones that didn\u2019t happen into links. Italicized are getting thrown out because they were confusing or conditional on something that didn\u2019t happen. I can\u2019t decide if they\u2019re true or not. All of these judgments were as of December 31 2020, not as of now.

(Remember, link means something that didn\u2019t happen, not something I was wrong about. We have a debate every year over whether 50% predictions are meaningful in this paradigm; feel free to continue it.)