Probabilistic Forecasting with Troy Lightfoot

Published: May 24, 2019, 7:33 p.m.

Trying to figure out when you will be ready to ship is incredibly challenging. Many Scrum teams track historic velocity, or story points completed in a Sprint, and then use the average number of points completed per Sprint as a way of making an educated guess as to when they could deliver when they\u2019d expect to deliver a certain number of story points in the future. There are, however, many who feel that this approach is no better than just making a completely random guess, and there is evidence to support the value in taking a different approach. \n\nIn this episode of The Reluctant Agilist, Troy Lightfoot explains his approach to Probabilistic Forecasting, what it is, why it matters, and how it is a better way of planning than using a more traditional approach. \n\nBooks Recommended In the Podcast:\n\nActionable Agile Metrics for Predictability - Dan Vacanti https://amzn.to/2HT1zfe\nWhen will it be done? - Dan Vacanti https://leanpub.com/whenwillitbedone\nPrinciple of Product of Development Flow - Don Reinterson\xa0https://amzn.to/2M989DD\n\nTools mentioned in the podcast:\n\nThroughput and cycle time calculator: \xa0http://focusedobjective.com/free-tools-resources/\nActionable Agile http://actionableagile.com\n\nAgile Uprising\nAgile Uprising http://agileuprising.com\n\nContacting Troy \nTwitter: https://twitter.com/g4stroy\nWeb: http://agileuprising.com/bod/troy-lightfoot/\n http://www.cookingandketones.com