Volatility Views 331: The Winners of the Great Crystal Ball Contest

Published: Dec. 3, 2018, 9:33 p.m.

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Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective.

  • VIX Cash - 19.4, almost unchanged from two week ago
  • VIX - 94, 12-points lower than last show
  • VIX Options - ADV: 546k, Total 6.77m (4.81m Calls, 1.95m Puts)
  • VXX - 35.5, 1-point lower than last show
  • Crypto crushed below $4k recently

Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week:

AAPL continues to take a beating - recently dropping below $175. We know many of you LOVE to trade $AAPL and this selloff creates opportunities. Looking ahead to Jan 2019 expiration- which trade would you prefer to make in $AAPL right now?

  • Sell Jan 150P for $1.65
  • Buy Jan 150P for $1.65
  • Sell Jan 200C for $1
  • Buy Jan 200C for $1

Listener questions and comments

  • Comment from Pete Yarbro - I'd sell this strangle.
  • Question from EELC5 - What's the lowest volatility can get in the SPX?
  • Comment from Nilai - I like Mark's idea for an erosionator in VXX. Would be something interesting to watch. Kind of like a smog report or tide report but for VXX.

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication.

Two weeks ago we asked people to guess where VIX would close on 11/30 by the end of the show. Answer: 18.80

  • Mark L.: 18.15
  • Mark S.: 15.25
  • R Ray: 19.70 -.9
  • Richie Rich: 17.1
  • Alex P: 17.50
  • William Valentine: I'm going with 16-ish. (I'll define the margin of -ish next Friday).
  • Ophir Gottlieb: 19.23 - Vol is too cheap for a number of names and buying one-two day straddles is printing money. This is one of the best trading environments for vol in 5 years.
  • MRTOPTICK: 19.87
  • Neil Wales: 18.1 - .7
  • ConTango: 15.09
  • Andrew Giovinazzi: 15.91
  • David Lincoln: 16.50
  • Jim Carroll: I'll take 14.90 cuz bears will take a break before they try again...Just wanted to take the under! Come at me!!!!!!
  • Matt Thompson, CFA: 18.71056
  • Cmcapone: Kind of late, but for the 11/30 prognostication contest, put me down for 18.80.

This week:

  • Mark L. - 17.15
  • Mark S. - 16.35
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