Whats Really Going On in Russia?

Published: June 30, 2023, 9 a.m.

Last weekend, in the course of about 36 hours, Vladimir Putin faced \u2014 and then survived \u2014 one of the most serious challenges to his rule in over 20 years. An armed rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of a Russian mercenary group, took control of a southern military town, and then advanced toward Moscow, coming within about 125 miles of the city. Then, as suddenly as the rebellion began, it was over: Prigozhin was quickly exiled to Belarus without facing criminal charges \u2014 an outcome that shocked many Russia watchers.\n\nWhy did Prigozhin stage this rebellion in the first palace? Why did Putin respond the way he did? What are the implications for the future of Putin\u2019s rule \u2014 and the broader war in Ukraine?\n\nThere are few people who understand the Putin regime as deeply as Stephen Kotkin, a pre-eminent scholar of Russian history at Stanford. We discuss Prigozhin\u2019s complex motivations, why Putin didn\u2019t shut down Prigozhin\u2019s critiques before they escalated to the point of armed rebellion, how to interpret reports that members of Putin\u2019s inner circle were aware of the rebellion plot, how Prigozhin\u2019s march created an \u201cunwitting referendum\u201d that could threaten the stability of Putin\u2019s regime, the bizarre cease-fire arranged by Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko, why Putin didn\u2019t kill or jail Prigozhin, how this series of events could impact the outcome of the war in Ukraine and more.\n\n(Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, June 28. It does not reflect any news developments that have emerged since.)\n\nBook Recommendations:\n\nChagall by Jackie Wullschlager\n\nInvisible China by Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell\n\nClassified by David Bernstein\n\nListen to this podcast in New York Times Audio, our new iOS app for news subscribers. Download now at\xa0nytimes.com/audioapp\n\nThoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.\n\nYou can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of \u201cThe Ezra Klein Show\u201d at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.\n\nThis episode of \u201cThe Ezra Klein Show\u201d was produced by Emefa Agawu and Kristin Lin. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, with Rollin Hu, Mary Marge Locker and Kate Sinclair. Engineering by Jeff Geld and Efim Shapiro. Our senior editor is Rog\xe9 Karma. The show\u2019s production team also includes Annie Galvin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. And special thanks to Sonia Herrero.