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Published: Aug. 30, 2021, 9:10 p.m.

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National Cabinet met on Friday after a week of intensifying debate about the vaccination thresholds in the national plan for reopening the nation.

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While expectations for the meeting were high, there was no showdown \\u2014 at least as far as we know.

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The current plan is vague, with words such as \\u201cmay occur\\u201d and only subject to \\u201cin principle\\u201d agreement.

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And the Doherty Institute modelling, which underpins the plan, acts as a fig leaf for the Commonwealth government to hide behind. So the plan has survived to live another day.

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Deferring the day of reckoning has papered over the cracks. National Cabinet is holding tight for another week and awaiting further modelling.

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A decision to hold tight is likely a compromise between the three factions in the virtual meeting room. But it leaves many questions unanswered.

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We have three factions

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1. Commonwealth and NSW

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In one faction, you have the Commonwealth and New South Wales, both committed to easing restrictions according to the vaccination thresholds set out in the Doherty report: 70% and 80% of the population aged 16 and over.

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison probably wanted to hold firm. After repeated failures to hit his vaccine rollout targets, he cannot afford another change in the plan.

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At the same time, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has probably recognised she has lost the fight to control COVID in her state and wants political cover to claim victory. She has already announced the easing of some minor restrictions for fully vaccinated people.

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2. Other states handling NSW leaks

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In the second faction, you have states such as Queensland and Victoria affected by leaks of COVID cases from NSW.
\\nThese states would have wanted the modelling to reassure them their health systems would not be overwhelmed if they started to ease strong public health measures at low vaccination thresholds.

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3. COVID-zero states

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The third faction comprises the COVID-zero states, such as Western Australia, which would be concerned about any heightened risk of COVID leakage from other states.

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These states only see downsides from easing restrictions too early, when not enough people are vaccinated. They do not want to throw away the benefits of their hard-won COVID-zero status.

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