Episode 81 - Saudi Oil Attacks | US Strategic reserves | Dean Foreman, API

Published: Sept. 17, 2019, 11:40 a.m.

b'Trump: US \'locked and loaded depending on verification\' of attack on Saudi oil field
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/15/politics/trump-us-saudi-arabia-attack-iran-iraq/index.html

Does this mean we\\u2019re going to war? Trump is showing US ability to strike, but strike no imminent. Trump is giving Saudi ARabia opportunity to deescalate the situation.

Iran is like raptors in Jurassic Park, testing the fence in a different place every time.
Saudi Arabia Aims to Restore a Third of Lost Oil Output Monday
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-aims-to-restore-a-third-of-lost-oil-output-by-monday-11568568391

Can output be restored? All output taken offline because plant closed and evacuated. Undamaged parts will be turned back on, damaged parts will take longer
Saudi Oil Attack: This Is the Big One
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/saudi-oil-attack-this-is-the-big-one-11568480576
This was not a momentous event in the global economy and won\\u2019t change things that significantly.

API Quarterly Report
- Bringing emissions down in US
- US upstream sector is firing at all cylinders.
- Resurgence in refining sector. Despite fewer refineries, but refining capacity utilization was 90%!
- Using more domestic crude and importing less. China might not be able to be so picky about where it takes it crude from.
- IMO 2020 and impacts on market
- EIA says we are still on target for US to become net energy exporter by end of year on monthly basis
- States using more natural gas saw lower prices over 8 years. States using more wind and solar saw higher prices

API Monthly Report
- 1.5 million bpd in new capacity (Q4 2019 compared to Q4 2018)
- In May the Brent-WTI differential was $10. New infrastructure coming online has helped bring that differential down.
- IHS forecasts average natural gas price of $2 in 2020. Is this realistic? Natural gas market depends on weather. If its colder, then natural gas prices would trend higher. Also LNG projects are a big variable. If they grow then will be more outlet for natural gas sales.
- Will weekly data releases from API and EIA have a greater impact on the market in a market that is overly focused on geopolitical situation?
- Increased product inventory in United States.

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