BROADCASTS.com

b'https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/chances-of-economy-falling-into-a-recession-within-3-years-historically-lowgoldman.html?

Does this mean Goldman Sachs sees oil demand continue in to rise? No threats to oil demand? Will they be making investments along these lines?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-report/opec-sees-slower-2019-oil-demand-growth-warns-on-economy-idUSKCN1LS1QI

How much oil is in supply at the moment? How accurate are our measurements of supply? Lots of fudging going on. Companies cut budgets for exploration. Will we see that playing out in 2025?

Perry-Novak-Al-Falih
https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-usa-novak-perry-meeting/update-1-perry-encourages-saudi-opec-russia-to-work-against-oil-price-spike-idUSL5N1VZ64H

Perry wants to see Russia and Saudi Arabia increase production to keep a lid on prices, especially before the election. However, Saudi Arabia just said that they are ok with seeing oil prices rise above $80 in the near term.

News: oil prices unchanged on monday
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-steady-as-iran-sanction-fears-face-u-s-china-trade-tensions-idUSKCN1LX01V

Oil prices seems to have already baked in trade fears.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2018/09/18/did-saudi-arabia-just-troll-elon-musks-tesla/

Saudi Arabia invests $1 billion in EV start up Lucid just 1 month after Elon Musk claimed that he had secured funding for taking Tesla private from the Saudis.

Interview with Dr. Foreman - Chief Economist API

www.api.org

How do you try to get a grasp of demand? Indicators?
Look at outside sources. What we are seeing globally are projections from outside sources that suggest global demand for all oil liquids has exceeded 100 million barrels per day. US domestic data corroborates this.

OPEC revised down its global demand figures for 2019 - this is a reflection of a more tame environmental. Indicative of higher prices. EIA sees continued growth. Consensus for economy is slower growth and with it slower growth in oil demand.

US petroleum exports - observed setbacks in Q3
Up until June huge progress in bringing down net imports of petroleum in US. Over last two months saw backsliding - both in crude oil and in products. Bigger change in August. Exports down 1.3 million barrels per day. Imports up as well.
Likely due to souring trade relations but that\\u2019s not definitive. Need to see data on where oil is going. WTI/Brent spread widening may be a result of shifting crude trade due to Iran sanctions.

If cause of WTI/Brent spread is buying patterns then it will normalize over time. But if widening is due mostly to decrease in WTI (which is due to infrastructure bottlenecks) then the differential will not resolve nearly as quickly.

Where is natural gas right now? The market needs more markets!

Impact of coal in emerging markets? China and India have tremendous coal resources domestically. Electrification of vehicle fleet is based on their ability to generate electricity from coal. Coal then becomes the key to the viability of their transportation system.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com'