Episode 28 - OPECs Relevance Grows Despite Shale | Qatar Petroleum buys stake in Exxon's Argentina shale assets | Saudi Aramco restructures

Published: June 8, 2018, 4:10 a.m.

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OPEC\\u2019s Relevance Grows Despite Shale - http://energyfuse.org/opecs-relevance-grows-despite-shale/
Predictions of OPEC\'s demise were greatly exaggerated. Group remains a force within the oil market, though we shouldn\'t fall into the trap of thinking that OPEC is still as powerful as it was in 1973. We still have a psychological trauma from the oil shocks that leads up to see OPEC as more powerful than it actually is, even when OPEC does exert itself on the market. At the same time, we shouldn\'t under or over-estimate the US shale oil industry. Shale producers are still trying to figure out how to make money and aren\'t a monolithic force in the market.

US crude exports could be a victim of brewing trade war with China - https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/washington/us-crude-exports-could-be-a-victim-of-brewing-21057130
It is possible that China could use US energy exports to China as a chip in its trade negotiations, but US exports to China are minimal in the grand scheme of Chinese oil imports. The US would like to significantly increase its exports to China, and China could decide to take advantage of that in the trade negotiations, but maybe not.

Qatar Petroleum buys stake in Exxon\'s Argentina shale assets - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-qp-exxon-mobil/qatar-petroleum-buys-stake-in-exxons-argentina-shale-assets-idUSKCN1IZ0U0
Wondering what happened to Exxon\'s assets in Argentina? http://www.energyboardroom.com/country_reports/argentina-inside-oil-gas-report/
Exxon having problems developing those assets, sold 30% stakes to Qatar Petroleum. Qatar may be happy to hold on to them until prices are higher.

Banks Sharply Raise Oil-Price Forecast on Geopolitical Risks - https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-sharply-raise-oil-price-forecast-on-geopolitical-risks-1528108200?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=6
Banks keep changing their forecasts for oil prices - now forecasting prices $6 higher because of Iran and Venezuela, but perhaps they should have anticipated the Venezuela issue because the declines we clear back in January. May change their forecasts based on what OPEC decides in Vienna in June.

Saudi Aramco restructures non-oil assets ahead of IPO - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-ipo-restructuring/saudi-aramco-restructures-non-oil-assets-ahead-of-ipo-sources-idUSKCN1J01F7
Could be a reaction to the Riyadh Ritz Roundup but could also be a desire to reduce risk exposure heading into valuation.

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