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Paul Hickin with S&P Global Platts @GramscianPaul

Undersea gas pipeline rupture causes fire in Gulf of Mexico
https://apnews.com/article/mexico-fires-business-e6e053384af21242722f2f3fc1acb27d
- PEMEX fault, not \\u201ccapitalism\\u201d
- Mexico actually the first country to nationalize its subsoil resources
- PEMEX doesn\\u2019t maintain infrastructure well and chronically underfunded

Explosion rocks Caspian Sea near Azerbaijan gas field
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/05/explosion-rocks-caspian-sea-near-azerbaijan-gas-field

Saudi oil minister highlights need to extend Opec+ deal
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2231047-saudi-oil-minister-highlights-need-to-extend-opec-deal

Saudi Arabia pushes back on UAE opposition to OPEC+ deal
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-energy-minister-pushes-back-uae-request-over-baseline-oil-output-says-2021-07-04/

- Iraq committed to OPEC+ deal, doesn\\u2019t want a price war
- Favors extended

Paul Hickin with S&P Global Platts @GramscianPaul
- OPEC and OPEC+ \\u2014 different situation from Saudi/Russia spat last year
- When UAE first raised baseline issue, prices were only in $40 range. Different scenario now
- UAE made more sacrifices than other members
- UAE looking to go up to 5 mbpd by 2030
- Is it realistic to change the baselines? Would be hard is only some baselines change.
- Prices have surged a bit - perhaps likelihood of no new deal? Or an OPEC fudge?

- China\\u2019s oil storage: little bit of a black box
- Has gone from 50 days cover in imports 5 years ago to 100 days of imports. Puts China on par with IEA countries, which have to cover 90 days
- Shows how important China views oil, still.
- 2 million bpd in refining/petrochemical capacity to come online
- If China wants to play a role as a swing consumer, it could do this using its oil stocks.
- China buys when crude is cheap, less keen when crude is higher, but still buy a lot because of domestic demand. Oil security means won\\u2019t draw down too far into reserves.

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