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b'Congress eyes cutting off foreign markets from US strategic reserve oil
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/courage-strength-optimism/congress-eyes-cut-off-foreign-markets-us-strategic-reserve
- this could be problematic because US refineries can\'t handle all the light, sweet oil in the SPR so there would be a lot of oil unpurchased if it couldn\'t be exported and Biden keeps releasing huge amounts of SPR.

China Oil Demand in Limbo as Virus Saps Travel Before Party Congress
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-oil-demand-in-limbo-as-virus-saps-travel-before-party-congress-1.1832275
- Will China\'s demand rebound or will it remain depressed to June 2023? This could impact global demand forecasts
- China not actually getting more capitalistic, business is happening through the Party
- China sees North Korea as ideal country
- Chinese economic collapse?

Biden Pitches Plan to Refill Oil Reserves, but Producers Are Skeptical
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-aims-to-spur-drilling-with-plan-to-refill-oil-reserves-but-producers-are-skeptical-11666467900
- Is the Biden admin betting on global recession dropping oil prices to $50 so then $67 looks good and oil producers will have hedged?
- $12 price cut is basically break even
- Producers seem to think high prices will continue, so who is going to take that deal?

Russian Military Boosts Jet Fuel Offtake for Ukraine War
https://www.energyintel.com/00000183-f6ac-dae6-a5b7-ffbe4fbb0000
- boosting Russian refineries

Dr. Dean Foreman from API
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2022/10/21/msr-petroleum-demand-reflects-economic-growth-in-september
- US is hitting records despite global chaos
- 20 million bpd of oil demand despite doom and gloom talk - good from economic and industry perspective
- remarkable recovery on natural gas side
- injection rate has caught up for storage
- extraction of NGLs has been record breaking for September
- 10.4 million bpd of gross exports of crude and refined products. Never higher for a month going back to 1947
- domestic prices aren\'t exorbitant
- don\'t have the kind of response on the oil drilling side the same way we had on the gas side
- Oil and gas production are affected equally by supply chain and labor concerns. Gas supplies are looking good but oil production is down except in Texas
- Why are prices still soft relative to where they probably should be, with inflation? Market is confused. Interest rate increases scaring off liquidity. Downdraft for oil prices along with ongoing SPR releases.
- International natural picture is still very short, even though US picture is solid. SPR releases have covered up structural shortage. IEA, OPEC, Saudi Arabia all saying investment and drilling activity not enough to meet demand next year. OPEC cut forces hand of OECD SPR releases - will they continue SPR releases? Maybe SPR releases a little greedy in advance of midterms
- Basically at price of right before Russia invasion of Ukraine. OPEC says it will defend this price.
- Roughly balanced market with SPR releases and OPEC cuts. What will happen with Dec 5.
- Distillate: the one area where the gov might ban exports to make sure we have enough. Stocks are really low on east coast - normally it imports some and gets from PADDS 2, 3 but it isn\'t. Symbiotic trade with Europe is disrupted. Historically low diesel reserves. Can substitute some fuels (residual heating oil, low sulfur fuel oil).
- Distillate is a hot product internationally now
- Trucking markets were really hot at the beginning of the year. Q1 was well above historical ranges. But now that prices are up, economy slowing, seeing a lot of slack capacity in trucking. DAT trend lines that track spot loads vs. trucks available. Seeing more trucks, fewer loads. Freight rates should be coming down.
- Jet travel picking up does impact this because clawing back of market share from trucking
- Soft distillate demand isn\'t all doom and gloom because there is some fuel switching BUT there are reasons to be concerned.
- DEI indicates that economic growth is slower and steadier not dropping off. Economy probably isn\'t tanking but it is moving sideways
- But when will Fed stop and take stock of how the rate increases are impacting the economy?
- Demand side looks pretty good now.
- Could a crash in the housing market have an impact on any fuel demand?
- inventories are so low that if we get an Abqaiq like event, markets will see that we don\'t have the cushion to deal with it and futures markets will react in a more extreme way.
- Banning exports is not the answer. We need targeted solutions to address regional problems. Targeted Jones Act waiver. Wild corner solutions aren\'t helpful.

Ellen\'s New York Times Opinion Piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/24/opinion/international-world/saudi-arabia-opec-oil-cut.html

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