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b'Russia/Ukraine - will Russia invade?
- What does Russia want? Expansion = national security
- Will Ukraine allow Eastern Ukraine to separate?

Crude oil futures slip after opening surge as risk appetite wanes
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/022122-crude-oil-futures-slip-after-opening-surge-as-risk-appetite-wanes
- What\'s the risk premium on oil? $10? $7 per barrel
- Russia prepared to reorient oil and gas exports to China - won\'t be instantaneous but Russia better prepared to reorient than US and Europe
- What would the sanctions be? no clue because US and Europe still obfuscating

Arab oil producers say OPEC+ should stick to current output agreement
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/arab-oil-producers-say-opec-should-stick-current-output-agreement-2022-02-20/
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Mazroui: "We are all hoping for the de-escalation... I think our plan has been working and I don\'t believe that the market is hugely under-supplied currently. It\'s the other factors that are outside our hands which are impacting the market." What does a market where we aren\'t hugely undersupplied look like?

3 states with shuttered nuclear plants see emissions rise
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/17/3-states-with-shuttered-nuclear-plants-see-emissions-rise-00009034
- The rise in emissions follows the closure of three nuclear facilities in Massachusetts, New York and Pennsylvania since 2019

U.N. pact may restrict plastic production. Big Oil aims to stop it
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/un-pact-may-restrict-plastic-production-big-oil-aims-stop-it-2022-02-18/

Big banks fund new oil and gas despite net zero pledges
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60366054

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/595002-five-ways-that-biden-could-help-reduce-spiking-consumer-costs-at?rl=1

API With the Monthly Statistical Report for January
- API | MSR: Record Demand, Flat Production, U.S. Remains Petroleum Net Importer
- Total US petroleum demand highest in January - with petrochemicals for plastics in VERY high demand.
- Can this trend continue or will it normalize? Investments made on belief that this will endure.
- How important is it? 7 million bpd. Really solid even if took out demand for petrochemicals
- DEI: technically we are still in a declared recession but DEI gives indications of industrial production. Positive slowing at diminishing rate of growth
- Shows industrial side of US economy continuing to do quite well.
- Relative dearth of domestic crude oil production appears to have eroded the feedstock advantage of many U.S. refiners, which in turn reinforced lower refinery throughput and capacity utilization rates.
- Average of 6 rigs added per week for 1st 6 weeks of year but compared to 2019, oil rigs are still down 40%. Going to take awhile to catch up
- Will refiners need to import? US is net importer in January. A little over $3/barrel difference between US crude production and imports. That covers the cost of importing. Refining advantage has eroded.
- Price advantage in terms of operations and feedstock has eroded and is showing.
- Big drop in refined product exports in December. EIA showing global oil demand back above 2019 levels but demand for US exports down 2 million bpd.
- Impact on NGLs, propane, etc. ethane has been between 30 and 40 cents/gallon. Its up but not too much. Propane has doubled from 60 cents to $1.20/gallon. US petchems rely on propane to make products. Asian producers use naptha to make ethylene. US producers use ethane or propane to make ethylene. NGL extraction at record high (5 million bpd) in January.
- propane use has quietly expanded with US energy revolution
- investment update coming next month
- basically still have a moratorium on drilling. FERC, etc. not authorized to issue new LNG permits WHILE we are trying to assure allies in Europe that we can send them natural gas. could generate investment to get it going to help Europe but it\'s not moving anywhere.

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