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US urges domestic oil producers to raise output
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2283072-us-urges-domestic-oil-producers-to-raise-output
- Jennifer Granholm tells members of the National Petroleum Council to please drill and hire people
- Also says Biden won\'t return to a crude oil export ban

CHINA DATA: Independent refiners lift run rates to 5-month high as margins hold
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/121421-china-data-independent-refiners-lift-run-rates-to-5-month-high-as-margins-hold
- China indep refineries increasing run rates to enjoy attractive margins
- Is this a good sign for the Chinese economy or not?

Europe facing record low gas storage by winter\'s end
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europe-facing-record-low-gas-storage-by-winters-end-2021-12-14/
- Russia hasn\'t fulfilled its promise to fill up Gazprom\'s oil stocks
- Russia shouldn\'t be counted on to keep its promises

The Federal Reserve Faces a Troubling 1965 Parallel
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-14/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-troubling-1965-inflation-parallel
- Argues that the fed needs to aggressively raise interest rates to get inflation down to 2% but the current Fed doesn\'t seem willing to do this because it would the stock market

European Union stands united on Russia sanctions, top diplomat says
https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-says-studying-russia-sanctions-with-britain-us-2021-12-13/
- Is the threat of sanctions real?
- If you sanction Russian energy it will hurt Europe
- Will Russia actually invade Ukraine? Many think this is unlikely, especially in the winter?

Dr. Foreman and the Monthly Statistical Review
- Surprising things from 2021: strength of demand and lack of investment and political shift that has occured this year
- Trucking and distillate demand strong in November: retail model in America has shifted towards online. gasoline is slightly down compared to 2019 but diesel is up, jet fuel down and materials up. Trucking has buoyed distillate demand.
- shipping helped double double residual fuel demand
- Inflation: fuel prices are contributing to inflation but even if you take food and energy out, inflation is still going up. energy price is elevated and impacts 20-30% of food costs (fertilizer, transportation, etc.) Inflation is making things $350 more expensive for average US household, which most households don\'t have. GRound up data says this is a pressure point for households.
- Reading the energy data for the future starts with the economy - despite all of the concerns, consensus estimates are showing 4.2% global growth in 2022 and 3.2% global growth in 2023. Economic growth is depending on oil and gas availability and need more to fuel economic growth. Inflation could take the wind out of the global economy, but not sure yet.
- Correlation between spending growth and consumer sentiment.
- Economic indicators are showing economic strength but there are a number of pressure points that could take us off track.
- Oil and gas projects in funnel - anything past point of no return we\'ve seen followed through, other things canceled. LNG projects canceled, petrochemical projects completed not canceled, refining projects canceled?
- majority of global energy investment is in upstream (drilling). If looking at drilling activity as corresponding with investment, we are still down 30% from where we were in 2019.
- International gas markets are a microcosm of what happens with a complete disconnect between supply and demand. Spot prices in Netherlands are showing never before seen prices.
- Monthly average prices in excess of $35 per million BTUs in Europe and Asia
- In US we\'ve pulled back prices to under $4 per million BTU. Gas markets are regionally disconnected and little equalization seen
- Why is there a dearth of investment? Supply chain, Covid, etc. How to remedy that? Lack of skilled labor to replace people when they go out with Covid. Problems getting pipes etc. through Port of Louisiana and trucked to where it is needed. Banks closing off credit lines, multilateral lines don\'t want to lend internationally to emerging economies. Immense debt taken on by companies is catching up with them. Policy issues - industry could use some help to get back up from recession and policy headwinds are against them, making drilling more expensive. Hard to make long-lived investments in industry when policy is against it even though market shows how much US NEEDS oil and gas drilling.
- Why are prices up? drilling down, imports up, inventories low
- U.S. exports: products exports down, crude oil imports dropped, crude oil exports increased this week. Average net petroleum imports for last 4 weeks is about 1 million bpd for U.S.
- Could potentially see nearly doubling of petroleum imports!
- If the economy is going to contract, recession then maybe we don\'t need more investment in oil and gas
- If interest rates, what is the implication? US stands out in a negative way in terms of debt - expected to careen out whereas others are expected to remain flat. US has no trouble facing debt now but second only to Japan in relying on short term financing to place 45% of its debt.
- If suddenly take 3 million bpd of US oil exports off the market, could put world into recession. Would be like Abqaiq attack. Have a short term impact to US prices but then would even out. Instantly East and West coasts would see higher prices.
- Exports shouldn\'t be blamed for higher prices.

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