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b'Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D.
2:21 PM (0 minutes ago)
to me, Ellen

Crazy\\u2019 Bets on $200 Oil Invade the Options Market
https://www.wsj.com/articles/crazy-bets-on-200-oil-invade-the-options-market-11634463002
- Will WTI go over $100 per barrel
- Options don\'t mean that traders actually think that oil will go to that high but the best indicate directional moves

Energy Crisis Prompts Asia to Turn to USA for Oil
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/energy_crisis_prompts_asia_to_turn_to_usa_for_oil-18-oct-2021-166745-article
- Asian buyers are buying more US sour crude cargoes for delivery in November and December
- Mostly because WTI is trading at a $3 discount to Brent

Will $80 Oil Open Shale\'s Spigots?
https://www.energyintel.com/0000017c-85a2-d141-a17c-a5fad5170000
- What if US rig count suddenly increases? Will that change OPEC\'s calculus?
- If Permian increases, U.S. natural gas production will increase too.

Coast guard: California oil pipeline may have been dragged by cargo ship
https://news.yahoo.com/coast-guard-california-oil-pipeline-191111477.html
- Is there anything that can\'t be blamed on container ships and the global supply chain?


https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/576600-how-utilities-could-offset-the-coming-winters-record-high-energy?rl=1

Dr. Dean Foreman from API Energy
- highest gasoline prices since 2014!
- highest natural gas prices since 2008!
- domestic markets are relatively well supplied but Europe and Asian markets are short
- D-E-I indicator: tracks roughly with the year on year change in industrial production. Still positive, signalling that the broader economy in US should continue to grow though there were some manufacturing indicators in U.S. that indicate industry beginning to slow.
- Will energy prices start to weigh on economic growth? Not seeing this in the D-E-I indicator but there are some concerns over this, especially with Fed policy.
- Oil prices have risen but there\'s no shortage. With gas, there is a shortage in Europe and Asia. Spot cargoes going for many times the average.
- Some drilling response in U.S. Adding 7-10 rigs/week. Drilling picking up in lag. Is that enough to meet EIA predictions? According to EIA, US needs to add 1.8 million bpd to hit $60-$70 per barrel.
- Cost escalation in oil industry is significant. That is going to make break-even prices increase a lot. Supply chain issues, tariffs on steel and other materials, labor shortages.
- Hard to catch up to lack of investment. In Q2 only saw about $37 billion in investment. Compare to $68 billion at same point in 2019. Only half of what we saw during Great Recession adjusted for inflation. Capital projects down $110 billion year on year.
- If you pile on policy from Biden admin saying that they want half of all US electricity to come from solar by 2030 how do you get funding for a multibillion dollar natural gas drilling project in Pennsylvania approved?
- Highest for the month of September of NGL production! Economic decision to take NGLs out of natural gas.
- Illinois has the second lowest stores on record as of last EIA report.
- US has pretty much maximized output of LNG for the terminals we have.
- 20.6 million bpd of petroleum demand in US - record high for September.
- Refined products exports lowest since May 2020: why? Some issues due to Hurricane Ida but also US trending to become net petroleum importer as opposed to exporter. Broader trend over last 6-7 months is that US is back to net importer.

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