Recently, the Taiwan issue has received great attention. Everyone thinks that this has something to do with the fate of China in the next few years. The following are some of my analyses of relations between the Taiwan Strait. In fact, it is not analysis, but some speculations and judgments.
These can be summarised into ten points:
1. Beijing hopes to solve the Taiwan issue by peaceful means.
2. Beijing can wait (although it is reluctant), but there should be no timetable for reunification.
3. In the foreseeable future, peaceful means cannot resolve the Taiwan issue.
4. Even so, Beijing will not take the initiative to use force to reunify Taiwan
5. Taiwan's politicians will continue to engage in "Taiwan independence politics", but they will not go further to avoid intensifying conflicts
6. The biggest risk to reunification comes from the United States, especially if the Trump government comes to power again.
7. If its bottom line is challenged, Beijing will definitely attack by force, and its determination exceeds outside expectations.
8. Even if Beijing tries to dominate Taiwan by force, the United States will not directly send troops to intervene
9. US's main countermeasures will be to launch sanctions and embargoes against China.
10. The United States is the biggest hidden danger: the more China-US relations deteriorate, the greater the possibility of Beijing's military reunification.
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