Ep. 91: Ukraine

Published: Jan. 29, 2022, 10:15 p.m.

b'Allan and Darren venture far outside their comfort zones this week to give some thoughts on the escalating crisis between Russia, Ukraine and NATO. This is an interesting and important issue because it brings together so many of the central questions in international relations. These include: the use of military coercion and other forms of deterrence; the behaviour of great powers, the role of diplomacy and signalling; the links between strategic and economic interests; the politics of the transatlantic relationship; the role of alliances; and the practical meaning of norms like \\u2018sovereignty\\u2019 and \\u2018self-determination\\u2019.\\nWhile not all of these can be covered in depth in a single episode, they all inform Allan and Darren as they offer initial opinions of the strategic context and stakes involved. These events are important to Australia because of their potential impact on the international order and, in particular, America\\u2019s role in it. Along the way, the discussion covers the specific phenomenon of \\u201cspheres of influence\\u201d, the geoeconomic dimensions, and whether there is any scope at all for for multilateral organisations to contribute. The episode finishes by looking at how the Australian government has responded and thinking about what Beijing\\u2019s perspective might be. \\xa0\\nRelevant links\\nAdam Tooze, \\u201cPutin\\u2019s challenge to western hegemony \\u2013 the 2022 edition\\u201d, Chartbook newsletter #68, 12 January 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to\\nRoss Douthat, \\u201cHow to retreat from Ukraine\\u201d, New York Times, 22 January 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-us-nato.html\\nFrancis Fukuyama, \\u201cWhy Ukraine matters\\u201d, American Purpose, 24 January 2022: https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fukuyama/why-ukraine-matters/\\nRob Lee, \\u201cMoscow\\u2019s compellence strategy\\u201d, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 18 January 2022: https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/\\nGreg Earl, \\u201cBitcoin vs the IMF, and other great expectations\\u201d, Lowy Interpreter, 27 January 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/bitcoin-vs-imf-and-other-great-expectations\\nPlain English podcast, \\u201cThe Biggest Losers of the Streaming Wars: ESPN, Movie Theatres, Peacock, and More\\u201d, 18 January 2022: https://www.theringer.com/2022/1/18/22888915/the-biggest-losers-of-the-streaming-wars-espn-movie-theaters-peacock-and-more\\n\\xa0\\n(Other interesting readings, in chronological order)\\nTyler Cowen, \\u201cWhat Will Putin Do Next? Game Theory Offers Some Clues\\u201d, Bloomberg, 19 January 2022: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-19/what-will-putin-do-next-time-for-some-game-theory\\n\\u201cWhat would a Ukraine conflict look like\\u201d Rachman Review Podcast, 20 January 2022: https://overcast.fm/+2IlRysJbY\\nEdward Fishman and Chris Miller, \\u201cThe Russia Sanctions That Could Actually Stop Putin\\u201d, Politico, 21 January 2022: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/01/21/russia-sanctions-stop-putin-energy-markets-us-invasion-527524\\nNoah Smith, \\u201cWhy is Ukraine such an economic failure\\u201d, Noahpinion newsletter, 23 January 2022: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-is-ukraine-such-an-economic-failure\\nFiona Hill, \\u201cPutin Has the U.S. Right Where He Wants It\\u201d, New York Times, 24 January 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html?referringSource=articleShare\\nMichael Kofman, \\u201cPutin\\u2019s wager in Russia\\u2019s standoff with the west\\u201d, War on the Rocks, 24 January 2022: https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/\\nDaniel Drezner, \\u201cOn deterring Russia\\u201d, Washington Post, 26 January 2022: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/01/26/deterring-russia/\\nCenter for Defense Strategies, \\u201cHow likely is large-scale war in Ukraine?\\u201d, The Kyiv Independent, 29 January 2022:\\xa0https://kyivindependent.com/national/center-for-defense-strategies-how-probable-is-large-scale-war-in-ukraine-analysis/\\nKyle Wilson, \\u201cPutin\\u2019s NATO power play stirs disquiet among Russia\\u2019s security elite\\u201d, ASPI S'