Ep. 88: Biden/Xi; Dutton/Wong; COP26; Solomon Islands

Published: Dec. 1, 2021, 11:52 a.m.

b'This week Allan and Darren open their discussion with the Biden-Xi virtual meeting. It went for a long time, the atmosphere seemed cordial \\u2013 is this enough for (some) optimism about the trajectory of US-China relations? Allan thinks so, while Darren cannot resist the temptation to offer an IR theory perspective and explain that the game theoretic concept of \\u201cdeadlock\\u201d might best capture the bulk of US-China relations at present.\\nNext, Allan and Darren analyse two recent speeches from Australian political leaders. To begin, in an interview Defence Minister Peter Dutton described as \\u201cinconceivable\\u201d that Australia would not support the US in an action to defend Taiwan, doubling down on this position in a speech to the National Press Club. In between, Shadow Foreign Minister Penny Wong critiqued the Dutton position in a speech at the ANU. What is the logic of Dutton\\u2019s explicit language? Does it affect strategic dynamics? While the government is often outspoken about China, ministers also regularly pass up the chance to say more \\u2013 how is the choice to speak out calculated? Meanwhile, Darren sees a national security politics "minefield" in efforts to critique governments as being too hawkish, but both he and Allan judge that Wong\'s speech was able to do it effectively, while introducing several other interesting ideas as well.\\nThe next topic is the COP26 meeting in Glasgow. Allan\\u2019s assessment of the outcome is mixed, while Darren focuses on how difficult multilateral negotiations must be, especially because negotiators enter with high ambitions that may never be achieved because of the need for compromise. He thus understands why the conference president Alok Sharma shed tears of disappointment, but understands that a willingness to be disappointed, but nevertheless keep going, is essential.\\nFinally, Australia is deploying police and troops to Solomon Islands given unfolding unrest. Allan provides the historical context to this decision (the RAMSI mission) while Darren wonders whether the China angle is meaningful.\\nRelevant links \\nThe White House, Readout of President Biden\\u2019s Virtual Meeting with President Xi Jinping of the People\\u2019s Republic of China, 16 November 2021: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/16/readout-of-president-bidens-virtual-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china/\\nVincent Ni, \\u201cBiden-Xi summit highlights tensions \\u2013 and desire for cooperation\\u201d The Guardian, 16 Nov 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/16/biden-xi-summit-highlights-tensions-and-desire-for-cooperation\\nLily Kuo, \\u201cChina lauds Biden-Xi summit as start of more equal relationship, despite lack of real progress\\u201d, Washington Post, 16 November 2021: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/xi-biden-summit-china-reaction/2021/11/16/f28cd98e-4657-11ec-beca-3cc7103bd814_story.html\\nTroy Bramston, \\u201cTaiwan defence a must: Dutton\\u201d, The Australian, 13 November 2021: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/defending-taiwan-against-beijing-is-a-must-says-peter-dutton/news-story/ef9dd7fd56515afbdc90021760d1d344\\nPenny Wong, \\u201cExpanding Australia\\u2019s Power and Influence: Speech to the National Security College\\u201d, Australian National University, Canberra, 23 November 2021: https://www.pennywong.com.au/media-hub/speeches/expanding-australia-s-power-and-influence-speech-to-the-national-security-college-australian-national-university-canberra-23-11-2021/\\nPeter Dutton, National Press Club Address, Canberra, ACT, 26 November 2021: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/speeches/national-press-club-address-canberra-act\\nMark Thirlwell, \\u201cAn initial assessment of COP26\\u2019, Australian Institute of Company Directors, 17 November 2021: https://aicd.companydirectors.com.au/advocacy/chief-economist/an-initial-assessment-of-cop26\\n\\u201cCOP26: Alok Sharma fights back tears as Glasgow Climate Pact agreed\\u201d, BBC Video, 13 November 2021: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-59276651\\nAlexan'