Volatility Views 230: Trump Volatility Bonanza

Published: Nov. 14, 2016, 6:41 p.m.

Volatility Review: The Trumpocalypse is here! What a week! VVIX: 102. So, about last night...Patient volatility seller ended up winning big. Volatility shorts cash in despite the shock U.S. election. Volume in non-U.S. trading hours set a new daily record.

Russells Weekly Rundown:

  • VIX Options - A crazy volume week!
  • Mon - 1.05M, Tues - 1.05M, Weds - 1.03M, Thurs - 1.08M
  • Total 7.08m (4.62m Calls, 2.46m Puts)

Earnings Volatility:

  • Walt Disney Company
  • Nvidia
  • Nordstrom

Volatility Voicemail/Options #QuestionOfTheWeek

$SPX Weds Weekly straddle says 2% move through election. How much will SPX / $SPY move through Weds 11/9?

  • Over 3% - crazy move
  • Between 2-3% - big move
  • Between 1-2% - mild move
  • Less thastockn 1% - meh

Listener questions and comments:

  • Question from Brian: Hi Mark, your shows are the best known to me. Congratulations on your success. I have a topic/question for Volatility Views. I am trying to get a sense of how viable XIV will be in the long term. Are there red flags for ETFs/ETNs that would indicate whether or not they will go broke at some point? Are the bigger ETFs/ETNs a safer bet or is it the ETFs/ETNs that deal with future contracts the ones that end up in trouble? I appreciate and value your advise.
  • Question from Mike The Bookie: Yeah, the ETF based volatility indexes. Is here a good place to bracket UVXY or VXX?

Crystal Ball: Wild prognosticating

Last week:

  • Mark L. - 18.50
  • Mark S. - 10.80
  • Russell - 23.50

This week:

  • Mark L. - 15.00
  • Mark S. - 12.00
  • Russell - 13.50