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As crypto markets continue to struggle, experts weigh in on whether the capitulation phase is finally over and what lies ahead. In this episode, hosts James Seyffart and Joe McCann, along with guest Noelle Acheson, delve into the recent market downturn, the potential for a recession in 2025, and why Bitcoin's divergence from gold is puzzling analysts. They also explore the impacts of upcoming rate cuts, the lingering effects of fiscal dominance, and whether Ethereum ETFs are living up to the hype.\nShow highlights:\n\nWhy crypto has been down so bad recently despite the macro cycle\n\nThe three factors weighing on the bitcoin price for the moment, according to Noelle\n\nThe chances of a recession in the U.S. in 2025 and how much the Fed might cut rates\n\nWhy the current rate-cutting cycle is unusual, with markets expecting far more cuts than usual, and how a potential spike in inflation could complicate the Fed's response\n\nWhy the K-shaped economy endures, driven by the U.S. government's reliance on capital gains taxes\n\nWhy fiscal dominance is a growing concern and why bitcoin's recent divergence from gold is puzzling, as they typically move together during crises\n\nWhether retail has been a buyer of the spot Bitcoin ETFs or it\u2019s just onchain traders who are now buying them\n\nWhy James says the Ethereum ETFs \u201chave been an absolute flop"\n\n\nSponsors:\n\nGemini\n\nStellar\n\nHosts:\n\n\nJames Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence\n\n\nJoe McCann, Founder, CEO, and CIO of Asymmetric\n\nGuest:\n\nNoelle Acheson, Author of the \u201cCrypto Is Macro Now\u201d Newsletter\xa0\n\nTimestamps:\xa0\n\n\n00:00 Introduction\n\n\n03:35 Why crypto is struggling recently\n\n\n09:16 Three key factors weighing on Bitcoin's price\n\n\n15:12 Chances of a 2025 U.S. recession and potential Fed rate cuts\n\n\n25:55 Unusual rate-cutting cycle and inflation risks\n\n\n32:06 Enduring K-shaped economy and capital gains tax impact\n\n\n34:37 Concerns about fiscal dominance and Bitcoin\u2019s divergence from gold\n\n\n54:57 Retail vs. onchain traders in spot Bitcoin ETFs\n\n\n1:01:43 Whether Ethereum ETFs have been a "flop"\n\n\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices