Market Measures - January 12, 2021 - Turnaround Probability For Different Instruments
For 45 DTE 16Δ short SPY strangles, the probability of turnaround drops to roughly 50% once the P/L has reached -50% the initial credit or lower. What is the turnaround probability for strangles with different types of underlyings after incurring the same amount of loss? Are contracts with more extreme P/L swings more or less likely to recover? Join Tom and Tony as they discuss turnaround probability for different instruments.