Yellen Admits Rates Could Stay at Zero Forever Ep. 110

Published: Sept. 18, 2015, 1:20 a.m.

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\\n\\t* Tuesday\'s podcast was titled, "Will She or Won\'t She?" referring to whether or not Janet Yellen would announce an interest rate hike for the first time in almost 7 years
\\n\\t* Today we got the official answer: "No."
\\n\\t* For the 54th consecutive time, the Fed has left interest rates unchanged at zero
\\n\\t* What is even more amazing, in the Q&A immediately following the announcement, Janet Yellen admitted that she could not rule out the possibility that interest rates would stay at zero forever
\\n\\t* A reporter asked her if the Fed may be trapped at zero forever
\\n\\t* Among the excuses the Fed used was problems in overseas markets, which opens up a grab bag of excuses for the Fed conveniently explain why it is not going to raise rates
\\n\\t* I said from the beginning the Fed has no intention of raising rates
\\n\\t* They also mention that these problems may spill over into the U.S. economy
\\n\\t* She also mentioned additional problems in the labor force: wages, people re-entering the workforce and more full-time jobs
\\n\\t* That is not going to improve in the next three months, yet the Fed is still pretending that it could raise rates in October or December
\\n\\t* Yellen is also no ruling out that the Fed could keep interest rates at zero forever, so who cares about what she won\'t rule out?
\\n\\t* Janet Yellen answered the reporter\'s question by saying, " We don\'t think we are going to be in that situation, however I can\'t rule it out."
\\n\\t* So the fact that she is not ruling out an October or December rate hike means nothing, because she also can\'t rule out zero interest rates forever
\\n\\t* What else does this tell you?
\\n\\t* She is concerned that rates will be at zero for a long time
\\n\\t* Janet Yellen believes that the Fed could actually keep interest rates forever
\\n\\t* They won\'t even stay at zero for the end of this decade because ther is going to be a currency crisis that forces the Fed to raise rates
\\n\\t* The only reason the Fed has maintained the illusion of control for so long is that the market is believing them
\\n\\t* When They figure what the Fed is really doing, then it is over with
\\n\\t* Then the dollar will tank, creating upward pressure on inflation
\\n\\t* They will have to raise rates; market will not give them a choice
\\n\\t* Janet Yellen does not know this
\\n\\t* Another reporter asked her if the Fed will adjust their policy if inflation gets to inflation sooner than anticipated
\\n\\t* Yellen went out of her way to state that 2% is the target, but not the ceiling
\\n\\t* I think the Fed does not have a ceiling, but the market does
\\n\\t* Another interesting discussion was regarding the balance sheet
\\n\\t* The Fed can\'t start shrinking the balance sheet until they raise rates
\\n\\t* Yellen admitted that since rates are still at zero, they are pushing back the time when the Fed will begin shrinking the balance sheet
\\n\\t* If the Fed never raises rates, then it can never shrink its balance sheet
\\n\\t* The Fed may never raise rates on its own volition: I know eventually they will have to raise rates
\\n\\t* And then it will be a complete catastrophe
\\n\\t* But everybody is still pretending everything is great, maybe the Fed will raise rates in October of December
\\n\\t* Here\'s another interesting development: the market was up all day but it sold off down 65 points. A pretty big reversal.
\\n\\t* Ultimately the Fed will have to officially take rate hikes off the table
\\n\\t* What kind of bad news will they need to do that?
\\n\\t* We got bad news today: Housing Starts were significantly below estimates and the prior month was revised down
\\n\\t* Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index had its second lowest week in a year
\\n\\t* The worst number that came out was Philly Fed - was expected to come in at +6, but actually came in at -6
\\n\\t* The biggest miss in 4 years
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