When Janet Yellen Talks, Why Do People Still Listen? Ep. 188

Published: Aug. 25, 2016, 12:13 a.m.

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\\n \\t* The price of gold fell about $12/oz today; silver prices were down another .28
\\n \\t* Both metals have been falling since recent new yearly highs
\\n \\t* Gold, though is not very much below the highs
\\n \\t* The real carnage has been in the mining stocks, particularly today; today was one of the biggest down days I\'ve seen all year
\\n \\t* The GDX index was down just over 7%
\\n \\t* Some of the mining stocks were down 10% or more on a very small move in the price of gold and silver
\\n \\t* In fact, we\'ve wiped out the last 2 months of gains in the mining stocks
\\n \\t* What is the catalyst for this?
\\n \\t* Early this morning, around 8:30 - 9:00 New York time before the U.S. Stock Market opened
\\n \\t* No news - gold was up 1 or 2 bucks...
\\n \\t* All of a sudden a huge sell order hits and gold drops about 7 or 8 bucks on no news
\\n \\t* Somebody decided to dump a lot of gold on the market, at one time and didn\'t really care what the execution price was
\\n \\t* Considering how large the sell order was, it didn\'t really knock the market down very much
\\n \\t* But the gold stock market was a different story
\\n \\t* It kind of made me think that the rationale for getting gold to drop was the impact it might have on the gold stocks themselves
\\n \\t* My guess is that a lot of people who were running with stops, that\'s when you have an order to sell below the market to try to protect your profits
\\n \\t* My guess is that they hit a lot of stops today in a lot of these mining stocks and maybe, some of the bigger players were able to buy more gold stocks based on the shake-out that was created
\\n \\t* By a relatively modest drop in the price of gold
\\n \\t* Meanwhile, the dollar didn\'t rise very much today; the downtrend still seems to be firmly in place
\\n \\t* What everybody seems to be focusing on is the Fed
\\n \\t* People are worried about what Janet Yellen might say on Friday
\\n \\t* The Fed\'s Jackson Hole Conference gets underway tomorrow and Janet Yellen speaks on Friday
\\n \\t* I guess the thoughts are: "Maybe she will say something hawkish."
\\n \\t* Maybe she\'ll say the U.S economy is strengthening and the Fed is getting closer to meeting its objectives
\\n \\t* And that a rate hike is possible in the near future
\\n \\t* So what? That\'s what she always says.
\\n \\t* Now she\'s not going to come out and say, "We\'re raising rates for sure. We\'re moving rates in September."
\\n \\t* The only thing she could say is that a rate hike is still possible
\\n \\t* That is no different than anything that she has said in the past
\\n \\t* So people being nervous about a possible unprecedented hawkish statement makes no sense
\\n \\t* Even in Janet were to say she is raising rates in September and she followed through a rate hike
\\n \\t* So what?
\\n \\t* It\'s not going to hurt gold and it\'s not going to help the dollar
\\n \\t* Expected rate hikes were already baked into the dramatic rise of the dollar in 2014-2015
\\n \\t* Gold declined from a high of almost $1900 to a low of $1050 because it was discounting all the rate hikes that are never going to materialize
\\n \\t* Even if we get one or two more, that is nothing compared to market expectations
\\n \\t* Even if we get a couple of small rate hikes, even if we get to .75 or even 1%
\\n \\t* That is still not enough to hurt gold or help the dollar
\\n \\t* When are people going to figure out it doesn\'t matter what the Fed does
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