Trumps Very Massive Recession May Have Already Begun Ep. 157

Published: April 5, 2016, 11:19 p.m.

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\\n\\t* Today is the Wisconsin Primary but Donald Trump has been getting a lot of flack in the media over the last couple of days about his comments about the U.S. economy, particularly in the financial media because Donald Trump has now predicted a "very massive recession" in the U.S.
\\n\\t* He didn\'t just say a recession, he\'s predicting a massive recession
\\n\\t* Most of the pundits on television don\'t see any recession at all - not even a mild one
\\n\\t* So here you have Donald Trump saying, not only is the recession going to be massive, it\'s going to be very massive
\\n\\t* The media is all over Trump: "What is he talking about? The economy is in great shape! He\'s peddling all kinds of fiction! We have this massive economic growth!"
\\n\\t* the President television today taking credit for this great economy with all these years of jobs
\\n\\t* Of course what the President doesn\'t admit to, is, it\'s not job creation - it\'s job destruction
\\n\\t* We\'re destroying full time jobs, the by-product of that destruction is that we create a bunch of part-time jobs that people don\'t really want but that\'s all they can get
\\n\\t* Yet the President is taking credit for that
\\n\\t* It\'s like setting a fire and taking credit for putting it out
\\n\\t* That\'s what the Federal Reserve did with the 2008 Financial Crisis
\\n\\t* Let\'s look at some of the economic news that came out over the past couple of days that resulted in the Atlanta Fed reducing its Q1 GDP estimate - yet again - to .4
\\n\\t* In last Friday\'s podcast I said that I thought they would be revising it down, and based on the numbers that just came out, they did
\\n\\t* One if the reasons the Atlanta Fed cited for the revision was yesterday\'s release of February Factory Orders
\\n\\t* They were expected to be down 1.6; instead it came out as -1.7, which was not that big a miss unless you consider the previous downward revision, which means it dropped from a lower level
\\n\\t* That took something out of the GDP numbers as did the very bad auto sales that I did mention in Friday\'s podcast
\\n\\t* Apparently the worse-than-expected trade deficit that came out today didn\'t even factor into their thinking, and I don\'t know why, because we were expecting $46.2 billion and instead we got $47.1 billion
\\n\\t* That\'s a pretty big miss, and they took January\'s estimate which was originally $45.7 billion and raised that to $46.2 billion
\\n\\t* We are still expecting the March number which will be factored into Q1 GDP, so I think the Atlanta Fed is still not low enough
\\n\\t* Remember, too, one of the things that\'s helping the Q1 GDP is that most of the country had an unseasonably warm winter, because bad weather is factored into the estimate
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