Trump Is No Reagan & Powell Is No Volcker Ep. 331

Published: Feb. 21, 2018, 1:23 a.m.

b"Dow Down Over 250 Points
\\nToday the Dow Jones was down just over 250 points; we're back below 25,000. I think we were down better than 300 on the lows of the day, but we went out pretty low.\\xa0 The dollar was actually quite strong today; the dollar index had one of its better days of the year - +.61. We're back at 89.71. We had gotten back below 89, with an 88 handle.\\xa0 Gold had a bad day today after having had some pretty good days last week.\\xa0 The price of gold down almost $18 now; just below $1330. We got above $1350 last week, but we couldn't hold it.\\xa0 I think we really need to go above $1400 to clear away this overhead resistance.
\\nBond Market Continues Decline
\\nThe only trend that really continued was the bond market, continuing to go down.\\xa0 It's pretty much a daily affair.\\xa0 Yields rising off the highs of the day - we're back below 2.9.\\xa0 We got to 2.915 on the 10-year.\\xa0 We closed at 2.893.\\xa0 But I think it is the back-up in yields that continues to put downward pressure on gold and some upward pressure on the dollar. Now, in the scheme of things, it does not matter because the dollar has been falling all year, despite the fact that rates have been rising all year.
\\nFalse Narrative That High Rates Are Good for the Dollar
\\nBut the narrative that higher rates is good for the dollar still permeates the markets. Traders still have not figured out that they've got this one wrong.\\xa0 Likewise, they still haven't figured out that rising inflation is good for gold, not bad for gold.\\xa0 In fact, I think the catalyst for today's rally in the dollar and the sell off in gold is the news that came out on inflation on Friday.
\\nBad News about Inflation
\\nWe got some really bad news that inflation is picking up.\\xa0 We got the data for import prices and export prices.\\xa0 Export prices were up by .8% but import prices, which were clearly more important, because we have to pay for our imports - our import prices shot up 1%. They were expecting a gain of .6%, so 80% higher than what was expected.\\xa0 Year over year, you're talking about a 3.6% increase in the price of our imports.
\\nImport Prices Rising Faster Than Export Prices
\\nNow this is bad for a couple of reasons: 1) If our import prices are rising faster than our export prices, what does that mean about our trade deficit? That means its going higher. But 2) It's inflation, or the cost of living, because we have to pay for these imports.\\xa0 If imports are 1% more expensive, month over month, that means it costs Americans more money to buy whatever is imported.\\n\\nOur Sponsors:\\n* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/ \\n\\nPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy"