Stocks and Bonds Do Dangerous Dance Ep. 327

Published: Feb. 8, 2018, 2:29 a.m.

b"Volatility
\\nThe volatility is really continuing, in fact, today at one point this morning the Dow was up close to 400 points; ended up closing negative.\\xa0 It wasn't a big drop; about 20 points, but I think that's the biggest reversal of a gain to a loss in a little over 2 years.\\xa0The broader market did worse.\\xa0 The S&P percentage-wise dropped about 13.5 points; the NASDAQ was down about 64 points.
\\nTurnaround Tuesday
\\nOf course the biggest reversal is the one we had yesterday.\\xa0 In fact, when I recorded my podcast on Monday I thought we'd have a big drop on Tuesday, but then I though we could also have a rally - Turnaround Tuesday.\\xa0 I thought we'd have a big drop in the morning and some kind of rally.\\xa0 That's exactly what we did, except we had an even bigger drop in the evening.
\\nDow Futures Loss
\\nOn Monday night, looking at how U.S. stock futures were trading in Asia, the Dow futures were down the equivalent of 1300 points.\\xa0 Now by the time New York markets opened, we had recouped almost all those losses.\\xa0 But if you look at the 5 trading days, from the high, the Dow Futures lost about 13% of their value.\\xa0 That just shows you how quickly the market can go down.\\xa0 The next time it could lose even more. That was a big move.\\xa0 Then we finished the day with a 500-point rally.\\xa0 So, lots of volatility.
\\nTrend is Changing
\\nI will tell you something:\\xa0 When you have a trend, and then all of a sudden you see lots of volatility, generally, that's a sign the trend is changing.\\xa0 The trend has been up, obviously stocks have been trending up for years.\\xa0 And they've been trending up with minimal volatility.\\xa0 All of a sudden you see massive volatility. Does that mean the trend is likely to continue? No.\\xa0 It's more likely a sign the trend has come to an end. Now you're getting all this volatility as people are jockeying around for position.\\xa0 People are buying the dips, now they're selling the rips.
\\nTail Wagging the Dog
\\nI think the close today is a very weak close. We could start selling off tonight.\\xa0 I think the markets closed in a very weak way and there could be a lot more downside, especially if you look at what's happening in the bond market.\\xa0 That is the tail that is wagging the stock market dog.\\xa0 Yields on bonds are now back to the highs.\\xa0 In fact, the yield on the 30-year is now the highest it has been all year. Higher than it was before this little crash.\\xa0 The yield is 3.117 on the close.
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