September Jobs Report Even Weaker Than It Appears Ep. 201

Published: Oct. 8, 2016, 12:44 a.m.

b'
\\n \\t* This morning the government released the most important, the most highly-anticipated economic release of the month
\\n \\t* At least that\'s what everybody who trades in just about any market believes
\\n \\t* And that is the Non-Farm Payroll Report; the official scorecard on job creation and unemployment
\\n \\t* This time it was for the month of September, the final month of Q3
\\n \\t* We\'re still waiting for the GDP estimate for Q3
\\n \\t* By the way the Atlanta Fed, which continues to do the interest rate limbo, lowered the bar again today on the Q3 GDP, which was 3.8% a month ago, when Janet Yellen talked about how the case for a rate hike had been strengthening
\\n \\t* As of today, the Atlanta Fed is down to 2.1%
\\n \\t* Politically, they are still trying to keep the estimate above 2%, although by the data, I expect it to be south of 2%
\\n \\t* The important news today was the jobs number;
\\n \\t* People were looking for a strong report, I think the consensus was around 170,000, but most people were talking 190 - 200,000, some people were looking for a number north of 200,000
\\n \\t* We got 156,000 jobs, which was below expectations, but a little better than the prior month
\\n \\t* Originally reported at 151,000 but was revised up to 167,000
\\n \\t* So now, based on the revised number, it\'s actually worse than the prior month
\\n \\t* Even though they revised the prior month up, they revised the month prior to that down, so the net effect of the revision was a decline
\\n \\t* The unemployment rate, expected to hold steady at 4.9 actually ticked back up to 5%
\\n \\t* Average hourly earnings, expected to rise by .3, following a small increase of .1 the prior month came in at .2
\\n \\t* Not quite the gain everybody thought
\\n \\t* This is not a good report, and anybody who thought the Fed was going to hike rates in November, they clearly don\'t think it anymore
\\n \\t* In fact, even WSJ reporter Jon Hilsenrath said that today\'s jobs report took a November interest rate hike off the table
\\n \\t* I would suggest that a November rate hike was never on the table
\\n \\t* To the extent it was there, it was only in the imaginations of people like Hilsenrath
\\n \\t* Hilsenrath says now, if the Fed is going to move, it won\'t be until December, but it\'s not a sure thing
\\n \\t* The fact is, the Fed is more likely not to raise rates in December
\\n \\t* Once again, you need to know the rest of the story, as Paul Harvey used to say, when it comes to the jobs numbers
\\n \\t* Because the headline doesn\'t really tell the story
\\n \\t* You always have to look beneath the surface, which nobody wants to do, except for myself, and a few guys over at Zero Hedge
\\n \\t* They always do a good job of pointing out what\'s really going on in the jobs market
\\n \\t* Number one: The big news was the net creation of part-time-jobs
\\n \\t* I\'ve been saying this for a long time that the big story is that we are replacing full-time jobs with part-time jobs
\\n \\t* Employers need more part-time workers than full-time workers because each one works fewer hours
\\n \\t* We\'re always going to have net job creation when you are transforming the economy from full-time to part-time employment
\\n \\t* That was clearly the case this last month
\\n \\t* According to the Household Survey, we lost 5,000 full-time jobs in September and added 430,000 part-time jobs
\\n \\t* I would venture to guess that pretty much all of the net increase from August to September, 150,000 or so jobs, is in part-time work
\\n \\t* If you look at the large jump in employees holding down multiple jobs - the government reports that
\\n \\t* There was a big jump in September in the number of Americans who have more than one job
\\n \\t* So obviously what\'s happening is that people with one job are getting a second job and peop...\\n\\nOur Sponsors:\\n* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/ \\n\\nPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy'