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\\n\\t* We had some wild swing in the market today, particularly the stock market and the gold market
\\n\\t* At one point this morning, the Dow Jones was down about 270 points
\\n\\t* It finished the day up 53 points
\\n\\t* There wasn\'t any real news that caused the market to go up; people were buying the dip
\\n\\t* The oil market also turned around; it was down a buck and change and managed to close up .20-.30
\\n\\t* Gold was the mirror image; gold was up at one point to $27-$28, back above $1250
\\n\\t* Then when the stock market rallied back the gold market sold off
\\n\\t* It managed to closed with a small $3 gain or so
\\n\\t* Gold stocks closed the day mixed, most still positive on the day
\\n\\t* The reason why the stock market falling is positive for gold is the effect that a falling stock market is going to have on the Fed, and its decisions on future interest rate hikes
\\n\\t* Even if the stock market is not going down, the Fed will still reverse on rates because of the economy
\\n\\t* The economy is back in recession, whether the Fed wants to acknowledge the fact or not
\\n\\t* We had another Fed official,\\xa0Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, actually came out saying he sees no signs that a recession is imminent
\\n\\t* He sees no reason why the Fed should not go forward with the planned rate hikes for 2016
\\n\\t* Maybe rose-colored glasses are standard issue over at the Fed
\\n\\t* There is ample evidence that there is a recession
\\n\\t* However, if someone of Lacker\'s stature would come out and say, "Look, we\'re going into a recesssion, but rates are really low and the Fed has to raise them anyway, and this is going to be difficult." That would be honest.
\\n\\t* But the Fed is saying they are going to raise rates because the economy is in great shape
\\n\\t* To do otherwise is to admit that the Fed\'s monetary policy failed
\\n\\t* The Fed is playing a very dangerous game
\\n\\t* Not only do they risk making the economy worse, they risk their credibility
\\n\\t* Here is some economic news that came out today, after Lacker\'s speech
\\n\\t* At 9:45 am we got the February PMI Flash\\xa0 Services Index
\\n\\t* Last month, the number was 53.7 and this number was expected to repeat for February
\\n\\t* The February number came out at 49.8! This shows that the recession is not contained to manufacturing
\\n\\t* This reminds me of what they said about sub-prime: "Don\'t worry about it, the recession is contained to sub-prime." - That was nonsense and it is nonsense now
\\n\\t* The problems in the economy are not contained to manufacturing, and today\'s numbers prove it
\\n\\t* The service sector contracted in February
\\n\\t* The last time this happened was in October of 2013. That was during the government shut-down, so a lot of government services were not available
\\n\\t* That\'s an outlier - if you take that out, the last time we had a service sector PMI below 50 was during the great recession
\\n\\t* So again, another indicator flashing recession
\\n\\t* It\'s amazing to me that the Atlanta Fed still hasn\'t walked down their 2.6% forecast for Q1 GDP
\\n\\t* \\xa0We\'ve gotten so much bad news since the good news that prompted that forecast yet they\'ve done nothing to downwardly revise their estimate
\\n\\t* The FOMC might have said, "Hey, Atlanta, get with the program! We\'re talking up the economy - stop coming up with these negative forecasts."
\\n\\t* On Friday, we\'re going to get the revised Q4 GDP numbers, which was originally reported as +.7
\\n\\t* I think it will be revised down, in fact the consensus is a revision down to .4
\\n\\t* So we\'re getting closer and closer to zero
\\n\\t* The numbers we\'re getting for the first quarter could be worse, despite the Federal Reserve\'s rosy scenario
\\n\\t* Also we got New Home Sales, which was a disaster; they were looking for 520,000 and we got 494,000 - that was a big,\\n\\nOur Sponsors:\\n* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/ \\n\\nPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy'