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b'January 16, 2018
\\nBuying Stocks with Both Hands
\\nWhen I recorded my podcast on Friday, just looking at the technical action in the dollar and I was getting nervous that maybe we could have been setting ourselves up for some kind of holiday surprise; a big drop over the 3-day weekend that could have led to some real fireworks on Tuesday; and when the market started, everybody ignored the new low in the dollar and they were buying stocks with both hands, out of the gate.
\\nThe Market Could Not Hold the Gain
\\nThe Dow gapped up, and it kept going up; I think it opened up almost 200 points and the was up almost 280 points in the first half hour of trading.\\xa0 We went above 26,000. It was just 12 days ago we were at 25,000. That was the fastest 1,000 point move in the history of the Dow.\\xa0 Of course, 1,000 points doesn\'t mean as much when you\'re going from 25,000 to 26,000 as when we went from 1,000 to 2,000. Or even from 10,000 to 11,000, but still, it was very quick.\\xa0 In fact, if you look at the trading days, it was just 6 days, because one of those days was Martin Luther King Day, and we didn\'t trade.\\xa0 So in 6 trading days, the Dow rallied 1,000 points. Well you know what?\\xa0 It couldn\'t hold the gain.
\\nAlmost a 400-Point Swing
\\nThe Dow actually sold off, and at the low of the day it was down 100 pts, so almost a 400-point swing.\\xa0 We closed negative on the day. The Dow was actually the best-performing index.\\xa0 It was only down about 10 points; percentage-wise it was barely down.\\xa0 But the NASDAQ was down .5% and the S&P 500 was down .25%. So we\'ll see if we get some followthrough tomorrow, to this potential reversal. It wasn\'t a massive reversal (we didn\'t close way down, but we did close down).
\\nTechnicals are Looking Worse and Worse
\\nMeanwhile, the dollar did close out on another new low.\\xa0 We didn\'t take out the overnight lows of Martin Luther King Day, when we were closed, but we closed very near the lows. The dollar index went off at 90.45; I think the low over the holiday weekend was 90.28.\\xa0 The dollar then started to gain back some of it losses early this morning and it surrendered them by the end of the day. But the technicals are just looking worse and worse for the dollar
\\nFed Box: Interest Rates, Inflation, Consumer Prices
\\nThis so far has not bothered the stock market crowd, because all they can see are positives.\\xa0 But if everything were positive, the dollar would be going up.\\xa0 People still don\'t understand what this is going to do to interest rates, inflation, consumer prices, and the box this puts the Fed in.\\xa0 How the Fed is damned if it does and damned if it doesn\'t. If it raises rates to put a floor under the dollar and a lid on inflation, then everything collapsed - we have a worse financial crisis than 2008 and the market implodes - or, the Fed doesn\'t do that because it\'s afraid of that and we get something worse.\\xa0 We get a currency crisis. We get a complete dollar implosion. We get hyperinflation.
\\nA Goldilocks Moment
\\nSo we have probably never been this close to something this bad. Remember, think back to the days leading up to the 2008 Financial Crisis.\\xa0 Other than me, was anybody warning about anything? No, it was Goldilocks! Everything was perfect. It\'s even better now.\\xa0 Back then, they at least let me on television to give the other side. Now, they think, what\'s the point? Everything is so great, we don\'t even want anybody to be warning about the possibility of a problem because - "There is no possibility!".
\\nRunning Up the Deficits
\\nWhat has happened since Trump has been elected.\\xa0 The market\'s up 40% since we elected Donald Trump. What has he done? Nothing.\\xa0 Has government been reduced? No!\\xa0 We haven\'t gotten rid of any agencies, we haven\'t gotten rid of any departments.\\xa0 All we did is cut taxes and the tax cuts have barely gone into effect yet.\\xa0 How did we finance the tax cuts?\\xa0 Running up the deficit.
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