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\\n\\t* Friday, November 6, 2015
\\n\\t* Earlier today the government released the Non-Farm Payroll Report for the month of October
\\n\\t* I was told that this was the most import Non-Farm Payroll report ever
\\n\\t* They were looking for 190,000 jobs and we created 271,000 jobs
\\n\\t* Everybody now has jumped to the conclusion that a December rate hike is a lock
\\n\\t* There is nothing in this jobs report that indicates that
\\n\\t* The reason everybody believes that the Fed is like to raise rates is because Janet Yellen testified before Congress earlier in the week
\\n\\t* This is what the Fed Chair said about interest rates:
\\n\\t* If we get further improvements in the labor market and we make progress at achieving the Fed\'s inflation goal of 2% in the medium term
\\n\\t* How much improvement and what kind? We don\'t know, because thus far, no improvements have been enough to prompt a rate hike
\\n\\t* Yellen said that if we got those improvements, then a rate hike in December would be a "live possibility"
\\n\\t* This does not mean it will actually happen - it means it is possible
\\n\\t* She did not even use the word probable
\\n\\t* I don\'t think the Fed is going to raise rates in December
\\n\\t* We have one more "most important" jobs report between now and December and this month\'s numbers may be revised down, as others have
\\n\\t* From my perspective, if the Fed does not know that they will raise rates by now, they will not decide on the spur of the moment after a jobs report
\\n\\t* Even with positive economic news, the Fed still does not have to raise rates; they can come up with another excuse, real or unreal
\\n\\t* What happens if the stock market declines after a rate hike? what would the Fed do then?
\\n\\t* "Extend and Pretend" is working like a charm for the Fed now
\\n\\t* Getting back to today\'s job\'s report:
\\n\\t* This is the strongest month of the year following the two weakest months of the year
\\n\\t* Both of those months arrived with expectations of upward revisions, and they did not happen
\\n\\t* The three month average is 187,000 jobs
\\n\\t* The last three months have been slower than any prior three month period this year
\\n\\t* Last year, the 3-month average was about 250,000+ jobs
\\n\\t* So the job market is much slower this year than it was last year when the Fed was looking for "more improvements" before raising rates
\\n\\t* The unemployment rate did decline, but so far no positive data on unemployment rates have prompted the Fed to raise rates
\\n\\t* The Labor Force Participation Rate stayed at 62.4% which matches the low of this so-called recovery
\\n\\t* So we are not seeing more people entering the labor force
\\n\\t* This is not a sudden accelleration in the pace of job growth
\\n\\t* Let\'s look at the quality of the jobs:
\\n\\t* Most of the jobs, about 200,000 of the 271,000 jobs added are low-paying service sector jobs
\\n\\t* In second place, at 45,000, is temporary help
\\n\\t* Third place, at 44,000, is retail trade
\\n\\t* The fourth largest category is leisure and hospitality
\\n\\t* Manufacturing, mining, logging, transportation sectors lost jobs
\\n\\t* Where it really gets bad is in the demographics:
\\n\\t* All job gains went to people 55 and older
\\n\\t* People under the age of 55 lost 35,000 jobs
\\n\\t* If you look at the gender, men from 25 - 54 lost 119,000 jobs
\\n\\t* What would explain this?
\\n\\t* Older people can no longer afford to be retired, and are supplementing their retirement incomes
\\n\\t* Some of the older people are taking better jobs because they are more experienced
\\n\\t* Why are more women getting jobs?
\\n\\t* Women who were previously homemakers also need to supplement their incomes
\\n\\t* When you look at the demographic numbers, it is further proof that the Fed\'s explanation of the labor force participation rate is wrong
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