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\\n\\t* The dollar index traded below 94 for a good part of the day, but it did manage to close up at 94 even, down just .20
\\n\\t* Gold was up another $19
\\n\\t* Silver really shined brightly today, up .54, just below $16/oz.
\\n\\t* Mining stocks, of course, were on fire; GDX was up just under 6% on the day, GDXJ up just under 7%
\\n\\t* This followed a spectacular day for the mining stocks on Friday
\\n\\t* In fact, even though gold itself was down a couple of bucks, we had a huge up day in the gold stocks
\\n\\t* Between\\xa0 Friday and today, I think this is the biggest two back-to-back gains for gold stocks all year
\\n\\t* The catalyst was the Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP estimate downgrade all the way down to .1
\\n\\t* If you remember, from listening to my podcasts, the very first time the Atlanta Fed came out with its upward revision, with a lot of fanfare, to 2.7%, I said that that was all political and that they would have to walk that back all quarter long, and now they have eliminated the entire estimated gain
\\n\\t* A fair estimate might have been -.1, but President Obama is still saying we have the strongest advanced economy in the world
\\n\\t* I don\'t know what his definition of "strong" or "advanced" is, but we might have one of the weakest of the advanced economies
\\n\\t* It\'s just that nobody wants to accept that fact yet
\\n\\t* Here\'s where it really gets interesting: CNBC was very dismissive of the weak economic numbers
\\n\\t* They are characterizing the weak Q1 as similar to previous years\' weak Q1, where the weather pushed back some economic activity to Q2, causing rebounds
\\n\\t* They said the same thing is going to happen this year.\\xa0 No it\'s not.
\\n\\t* This year is different from last year
\\n\\t* First, let\'s talk about inventories: February and January Wholesale Trade Inventories have been revised down from +.3 to -.2
\\n\\t* Last year, companies were still building up inventories, believing in the recovery narrative, boosting GDP
\\n\\t* The inventory unwind that I have been talking about for the last year is just beginning
\\n\\t* It started in Q1 of this year, and this inventory sell-down is going to subtract from GDP
\\n\\t* Here\'s another factor: the weather
\\n\\t* The weather for the last two first quarters was very cold, pushing economic activity to Q2, helping Q2 to rebound
\\n\\t* That\'s not what happened this year.\\xa0 The first quarter of this year was the warmest in over 120 years
\\n\\t* So obviously there was no economic activity pushed forward due to weather, if anything, the weather might have pulled some activity from Q2 to Q1
\\n\\t* As weak as Q1 was, it might have been weaker if cold weather had suspended some economic activity
\\n\\t* The third difference is the trade deficit, which is rapidly growing this year
\\n\\t* I think the growing trade deficit will continue to put a drag on Q2 GDP
\\n\\t* The inventory liquidation will continue to be a drag on Q2 GDP
\\n\\t* What that means is had the government properly seasonally adjusted Q1 for the unusually warm weather, I think Q1 GDP would be a lot lower
\\n\\t* Q1 will be a contraction, and we are going to fall from there
\\n\\t* If that is true, then we are in a recession
\\n\\t* I think this recession will be longer in duration that the preceding one
\\n\\t* The question is: What is the government going to do about it?
\\n\\t* There was a meeting today between President Obama, Joe Biden and Janet Yellen
\\n\\t* They have to figure out how to throw the economy a lifeline without admitting that it is drowning
\\n\\t* The first thing the Fed can do is signal that they are not going to raise rates - change their forward guidance
\\n\\t* By just not raising the rates, the specter of a hike remains
\\n\\t* The question is what story will they use in order to not damage Obama\'s recovery narrative and Hillary Clinton\'s campaign?
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