Inflation Finally Rears Its Head Ep. 228

Published: Feb. 17, 2017, 12:54 a.m.

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\\n \\t* We had a very significant day in the currency and gold markets yesterday
\\n \\t* We had some good follow through today that really buttresses the point that I want to make
\\n \\t* We got some economic news that was released yesterday that would have been considered bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold
\\n \\t* By most people, other than me, who trade currencies and who trade gold
\\n \\t* But the fact that gold did not sell off or the dollar did not rally was very significant
\\n \\t* The news was the CPI and Retail Sales
\\n \\t* First of all, Retail Sales came out stronger than expected, they were looking for a gain of .1% and we got a gain of .4%
\\n \\t* They actually revised the prior month\'s gain from +.6% to\\xa0 +.1%
\\n \\t* Now a lot of the gain in retail sales, though has to do with the fact that prices are higher
\\n \\t* Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation
\\n \\t* Prices are going up
\\n \\t* Retail sales may be going up, particularly things like gasoline
\\n \\t* It\'s not just the price of gas that\'s going up; everything is going up
\\n \\t* The CPI came out at the same time as Retail Sales and that is the bigger number
\\n \\t* We got a .6% rise in consumer prices
\\n \\t* That\'s versus the expected .3%
\\n \\t* Even the core - you take out food and energy - we were up .3% there versus an estimate of .2%
\\n \\t* Year over year CPI 2.5% that\'s the official number
\\n \\t* Obviously prices are going up a lot faster than that but according to the government they\'re going up at 2.5%
\\n \\t* Even if you take out food and energy and just look at the core, year over year the change is 2.3%
\\n \\t* Now remember the Fed is saying their target is 2%
\\n \\t* When Janet Yellen testified this week she said that she\'s confident this week that we\'re going to hit her objective
\\n \\t* Well, we\'ve already surpassed her objective
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