Inflation Finally Rears Its Head Ep. 228

Published: Feb. 17, 2017, 12:54 a.m.


\n \t* We had a very significant day in the currency and gold markets yesterday
\n \t* We had some good follow through today that really buttresses the point that I want to make
\n \t* We got some economic news that was released yesterday that would have been considered bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold
\n \t* By most people, other than me, who trade currencies and who trade gold
\n \t* But the fact that gold did not sell off or the dollar did not rally was very significant
\n \t* The news was the CPI and Retail Sales
\n \t* First of all, Retail Sales came out stronger than expected, they were looking for a gain of .1% and we got a gain of .4%
\n \t* They actually revised the prior month's gain from +.6% to\xa0 +.1%
\n \t* Now a lot of the gain in retail sales, though has to do with the fact that prices are higher
\n \t* Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation
\n \t* Prices are going up
\n \t* Retail sales may be going up, particularly things like gasoline
\n \t* It's not just the price of gas that's going up; everything is going up
\n \t* The CPI came out at the same time as Retail Sales and that is the bigger number
\n \t* We got a .6% rise in consumer prices
\n \t* That's versus the expected .3%
\n \t* Even the core - you take out food and energy - we were up .3% there versus an estimate of .2%
\n \t* Year over year CPI 2.5% that's the official number
\n \t* Obviously prices are going up a lot faster than that but according to the government they're going up at 2.5%
\n \t* Even if you take out food and energy and just look at the core, year over year the change is 2.3%
\n \t* Now remember the Fed is saying their target is 2%
\n \t* When Janet Yellen testified this week she said that she's confident this week that we're going to hit her objective
\n \t* Well, we've already surpassed her objective
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