Good Earnings Cant Support an Over-Priced Stock Market Ep. 348

Published: April 24, 2018, 11:49 p.m.

b'The Correction is Over and the Bear Market is Resuming
\\nAs I have been speaking about in my last couple of podcasts, it looks like the period of relative calm in the markets is over and the next leg down has begun.\\xa0 So the correction is also over - not the downward move - that is not the correction - this is the bear market.\\xa0 The upward move was the correction. It was the first correction in this young bear market.\\xa0 Technically it is not a bear market yet because we\'re not down 20% but that is only a matter of time. So I think the correction is over and the bear market is resuming, the primary trend being down.
\\nDow Transports Big Losers
\\nIn fact, the U.S. stock market was down for its fifth consecutive day, although today was the biggest decline.\\xa0 The Dow ended down 424 points.\\xa0 We managed to close just above 24,000 at 24,024. But we were well below.\\xa0 At the lows of the day we were down about 600 points.\\xa0 Percentage wise we were down 1.74%. The NASDAQ, about the same, down 1.7%.\\xa0 At the lows it was down close to 150 points on the NASDAQ.\\xa0 Percentage wise, the Dow transports were the big losers, down 221 points - 2.08%.
\\nEarnings Don\'t Matter
\\nNow, one of the things that investors have been counting on to support stock prices and, in fact, drive them higher, were earnings.\\xa0 Everybody\'s been saying, "Earnings are going to be higher!" Now what have I been saying on my podcasts, over the last several months?\\xa0 I\'ve been saying that it doesn\'t matter, because all these great earnings, if they materialize, are already baked into the cake. They are already discounted into the price of the stocks. So in other words, they don\'t matter. It\'s "buy the rumor, sell the fact".
\\nDouble Whammy of Faster Growth and Lower Taxes
\\nIf everybody knows that earnings are going to be good, well, they\'ve priced in those expectations into the market.\\xa0 Why do you think the market has gone up so much since Trump was elected President? It was on the anticipation of all these earnings that were going to come from a combination of faster growth and lower taxes. In fact, the lower taxes are why we were going to get the growth, so it was going to be a double whammy.\\xa0 Well, all that was priced into the market.
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