Fewer Hires Means Fewer Fires Ep. 83

Published: May 17, 2015, 12:25 a.m.

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\\n\\t* S&P responds to bad news with new high; DJ just barely off record high
\\n\\t* Dollar continues to fall
\\n\\t* The currency traders still have not accepted the significance of bad news
\\n\\t* Lower dollar will be the trend
\\n\\t* Friday got a trifecta of bad economic news
\\n\\t* Thursday Weekly Jobless Claims number declined to 264,000 - lowest weekly jobless claims in 42 years
\\n\\t* Why are there so few job losses? Because so few people are getting hired
\\n\\t* Government numbers come from the Birth/Death Model, which assumes a certain number of businesses created each month
\\n\\t* What if these businesses are not actually created?
\\n\\t* This would explain lower number of unemployment claims
\\n\\t* There\'s no way we can say that the economy is the best it has been in 42 years
\\n\\t* Empire State Manufacturing Index, which was weak last month, expected to be +5, came in at 3.09; below estimate for the 4th month in a row
\\n\\t* Both Business Expectations and Hiring declined from April to May
\\n\\t* Industrial Production Capacity Utilization was expected to be flat; down again .3%
\\n\\t* This is not the 5th consecutive monthly decline in Industrial Production; longest losing streak since 2009
\\n\\t* Consumer Sentiment Number 95.9 in April - expected to hold steady - came in at 88.6; biggest drop since December 2012, and biggest miss ever
\\n\\t* If the job market is so strong, why is confidence plunging?
\\n\\t* The percentage of employees who fear losing their jobs is at highest level since March of 2009
\\n\\t* The bubble is rapidly deflating
\\n\\t* Unofficially, I think we have been in recession for the entire "recovery"
\\n\\t* The government is not accurately measuring inflation in the GDP deflator
\\n\\t* The Fed has not forecast a single recession
\\n\\t* Recessions always happen contrary to forecasts
\\n\\t* If we are in a recession there can not be a rate hike
\\n\\t* At some point they are going to have to acknowledge that the numbers are not accurate
\\n\\t* The unemployment rate is going to have to tick up at soe point this year
\\n\\t* At some point after the end of the quarter it will become obvious that there is no rate hike coming
\\n\\t* The only question is, What is the Fed going to do?
\\n\\t* The Fed has not managed to shrink the balance sheet, and further QE will take the deficit to a whole new level
\\n\\t* This will put massive downward pressure on the dollar
\\n\\t* Oil prices will spike
\\n\\t* Cheap gas prices did not create a bounce in Q1
\\n\\t* Consumer Confidence will plunge
\\n\\t* Reality is finally going to set in on the failure of the Fed monetary policy
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