Ep. 165: Markets In Denial About Jobs As Trump Lets Truth Slip About Debt

Published: May 7, 2016, 12:07 a.m.

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\\n\\t* Today we got the government\'s Non-Farm Payroll report, otherwise known as the Jobs Report, for the month of April and pretty much all the mainstream Wall Street guys were looking for another strong report
\\n\\t* In fact, earlier in the week Goldman Sachs was out saying that the 200,000 consensus estimate was too low!
\\n\\t* The optimism was unfazed by the much weaker than expected ADP report I spoke about on my last podcast on Wednesday, which came in much lighter than expected
\\n\\t* So, people didn\'t care, they said, "That\'s a one-off event, we\'re still looking for a good number, and we got a weak report
\\n\\t* Instead of 200,000 jobs we only got 160,000 jobs
\\n\\t* And they actually revised down the last couple of months
\\n\\t* But let\'s get into some of the details, because it gets worse, the further beneath the surface you look
\\n\\t* The unemployment rate held steady at 5%; they were expecting it to notch down to 4.9% - that did not happen
\\n\\t* Private payrolls also much lighter than expected; they were looking for 195,000; they got 171,000 and they revised down last month\'s from 195K to 184K
\\n\\t* They did get the .3% increase in average hourly earnings, but they forgot to point out that they revised month\'s .3% increase down to .2% so you can chalk that one up as a miss, despite the fact that nobody was talking about it
\\n\\t* The bigger miss was in the Labor Force Participation Rate
\\n\\t* Last month it was 63%, which was a move up, but in April it came back down to 62.8%
\\n\\t* 562,000 people left the labor force during the month of April
\\n\\t* A massive exodus led by young people
\\n\\t* A breakdown in the Household Survey for ages 20-24 reported 155,000 job losses in April
\\n\\t* For ages 25 - 54 -\\xa0 284,000 jobs losses
\\n\\t* For ages over the age of 55 - this is the highest it has ever been
\\n\\t* Janet Yellen still wants to pretend that the reason the Labor Force Participation Rate is declining is because the Baby Boom is retiring - how much longer is she going to get away with that lie?
\\n\\t* The Baby Boom is too broke to retire
\\n\\t* The people leaving the workforce are young people in their 20\'s and 30\'s
\\n\\t* A breakdown of job gains by sector shows the biggest sector is professional business and temporary services - 56,000 gains
\\n\\t* Healthcare and education was high, and leisure and hospitality came in third
\\n\\t* Manufacturing barely gained any jobs after a huge loss the prior month
\\n\\t* Wholesale trade barely gained any
\\n\\t* Construction, after a big jump last month - only 1,000 jobs
\\n\\t* Retail trade lost 3,000 jobs
\\n\\t* Mining and logging continues to lose jobs
\\n\\t* On a good note, government actually lost jobs
\\n\\t* That\'s a good thing - we don\'t need so many people working for government - they\'re not productive
\\n\\t* Rick Santelli made a very good point today on CNBC, talking about all the jobs created at the TSA
\\n\\t* We\'re not better off with those jobs - they decrease our productivity
\\n\\t* As I mentioned on my last podcast, we\'ve now had 2 consecutive quarters of losses in productivity
\\n\\t* Despite this bad jobs report, the market shrugged it off
\\n\\t* The stock market rallied because bad news is good news - the odds of a Fed rate hike are now the lowest they\'ve ever been
\\n\\t* If you look at the Foreign Exchange markets, the dollar was broadly higher today
\\n\\t* It was up big against the Australian dollar because the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered their inflation forecast
\\n\\t* They lowered it from 2-3% to 1-2%
\\n\\t* You would think that\'s good news, because it means the cost of living will rise only 1-2%
\\n\\t* Back in the day, news of low inflation sent a currency higher, because it was not losing purchasing power
\\n\\t* The news sent the Australian dollar tumbling because the market now expects the Australian Reserve will have to c...\\n\\nOur Sponsors:\\n* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/ \\n\\nPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy'