Calm Before the Storm Ep. 346

Published: April 17, 2018, 3:37 a.m.

b"Podcast Break: Investor Summit at Sea
\\nI apologize to everybody who has been waiting patiently for my next podcast.\\xa0 Las week I went the entire week without doing a podcast, which is unusual. If you are a regular listener to this podcast you'll know that I was on a cruise ship all last week; I was on the Real Estate Guys' cruise.\\xa0 The internet connections on a ship are very slow; particularly the upload speeds - plus I was very busy, so I really decided to take a week off from podcasting.
\\nMarkets\\xa0 Were Overall Quiet
\\nYou know, there really wasn't that much that happened last week.\\xa0 the markets were overall quiet, although the U.S\\xa0 stock market rallied, gold didn't do much, the dollar didn't do much; no real earth-shattering news, so I didn't see any reason why I couldn't wait until I was back onshore, which is what I'm doing, and in fact, I was so\\xa0 busy today that it is very late on a Monday night and I'm just trying to get this podcast recorded today.
\\nFOMC Minutes Released
\\nFirst of all, I'll talk about some if the stuff that happened last week.\\xa0 We did get the release of the FOMC minutes, in fact, after the minutes came out we had a pretty big drop in the price of gold.\\xa0 Gold did manage to get all the way up to about 1365 during the week before selling off and I think the Fed minutes were a catalyst to get gold to sell off.\\xa0 Of course, it really can't get much below 1330; there is a lot of buying that comes in down there.
\\nFed Half Right
\\nThe read on the minutes was that they were hawkish in that the Fed was signaling that the economy is going to keep strengthening and inflation is going to keep rising.\\xa0 Well, at least they're half right.\\xa0 The economy isn't going to keep strengthening, but inflation will keep rising,
\\nPPI Close to a Breakout
\\nIn fact, they're not even half right: They're right that inflation is going to go up, but it is going to go up by a lot more than they think, so even the part they got right they really got wrong.\\xa0 We did get some inflation numbers - official measures of inflation that the government released last week.\\xa0 If you look particularly at the Producer Price Index, core producer prices rose at the fastest pace in 7 years.\\xa0 And if you look at a chart, we're very close to a breakout of resistance on core PPI.\\xa0 Core CPI also up a little better than expected, but this is just the beginning of a trend.\\xa0 During the week oil prices made new highs.\\xa0 We got above $67 a barrel, so we're continuing to get closer and closer to 70 and eventually and 100.\\xa0 It's not just oil prices that are rising, it's pretty much\\xa0 commodities prices across the board.
\\nFed Will not Deliver Rate Hikes
\\nBut the Fed is not going to be able to deliver the rate hikes that the market is expecting and, again, it is the expectation of more rate hikes that is keeping a lid on the price of gold, but it's only a matter of time before the market blows the lid off and the price of gold goes up.\\n\\nOur Sponsors:\\n* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/ \\n\\nPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy"