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\\n \\t* Earlier this morning we got the first look at Q4 GDP
\\n \\t* As I suggested on the last podcast, in fact as I have been saying all along
\\n \\t* We did see a sharp decline from the Q3 3.5% GDP
\\n \\t* The consensus was for a 2.2% estimate for growth in Q4
\\n \\t* And we came in at 1.9%
\\n \\t* Quite a way below estimates and psychologically below the 2% number
\\n \\t* Part of the reason was a big drop in exports
\\n \\t* I talked about this last quarter
\\n \\t* One of the reasons we got that 3.5% jump in Q3 GDP
\\n \\t* Was the big surge in soybean exports, because of a drought overseas
\\n \\t* Which created a temporary increase for U.S. beans
\\n \\t* The rest of it was an inventory build, which I still think needs to be worked off
\\n \\t* In fact, I think we\'re going to work off a lot of it in the first quarter of this year
\\n \\t* That\'s the first estimate, and, who knows, they may downward revise it the next time they give us the numbers
\\n \\t* If you now take the first 3 quarters of GDP growth, and use the first estimate for Q4
\\n \\t* For the entire year of 2016 GDP grew at just 1.6%
\\n \\t* That is the lowest number since 2009, tied with 2011, at 1.6% also
\\n \\t* If you remember 2011 GDP growth was so weak that they launched QE3 for 2012
\\n \\t* So they ended QE2, the economy started rolling over
\\n \\t* And when they got that 1.6% GDP for the entire year
\\n \\t* The Fed very quickly came out and launched QE3 the following year to goose the GDP back up
\\n \\t* \\xa0What are they doing now?\\xa0 Not only is the Fed not preparing to launch another round of QE
\\n \\t* They are tightening monetary policy
\\n \\t* They\'re saying, "We\'re going to raise interest rates 3 times, even though GDP is as low as it has been for the entire "recovery\'
\\n \\t* Even though the economy is decelerating, we are going to sedate it with rate hikes
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