Throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine, David Remnick has talked with Stephen Kotkin, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who is deeply informed on U.S.-Russia relations, and a biographer of Stalin. With the Ukrainian counter-offensive proceeding very slowly, Kotkin says that Ukraine is unlikely to \u201cwin the peace\u201d on the battlefield; an armistice on Zelensky\u2019s terms\u2014although they may be morally correct\u2014would require the defeat of Russia itself. Realistically, he thinks, Ukraine must come to accept some loss of territory in exchange for security guarantees. And, without heavy political pressure from the U.S., Kotkin tells David Remnick, no amount of military aid would be sufficient. \u201cWe took regime change off the table,\u201d Kotkin notes regretfully. \u201cThat\u2019s so much bigger than the F-16s or the tanks or the long-range missiles because that\u2019s the variable . . . . When he\u2019s scared that his regime could go down, he\u2019ll cut and run. And if he\u2019s not scared about his regime, he'll do the sanctions busting. He\u2019ll do everything he\u2019s doing because it\u2019s with impunity.\u201d\nShare your thoughts\xa0on\xa0The New Yorker\xa0Radio Hour\xa0podcast.