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• When will the world end?
• How likely is it that intelligent extraterrestrial life exists?
• Are we living in a simulation like the Matrix?
• Is our universe but one in a multiverse?
• How does Warren Buffett continue to beat the stock market?
• How much longer will your romance last?

In this wide ranging conversation with science writer William Poundstone, answers to these questions, and more, will be provided \\u2026 or at least considered in the framework of Bayesian analysis. In the 18^th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes\\u2019 formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy.

But here\\u2019s where things get really interesting: Bayes\\u2019 theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the \\u201cmany worlds\\u201d interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive?

The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley\\u2019s profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought. Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it\\u2019s the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe.

Listen to Science Salon via iTunes, Spotify, Google Play Music, Stitcher, iHeartRadio, TuneIn, and Soundcloud.

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