Why Russia Is Losing the War in Ukraine
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the question most analysts were asking was not whether Russia would win. It was how fast. On almost every quantifiable metric from military strength to economic size Russia has decisive advantages over Ukraine. A swift Russian victory appeared inevitable.\n\nOf course, that swift victory didn\u2019t happen. And in recent weeks, the direction of the war has begun to tilt in Ukraine\u2019s direction. On Sept. 6, the Ukrainian military launched a counteroffensive near Kharkiv in northern Ukraine and regained 3,400 square miles of territory in a week \u2014 more territory than Russia had captured in the last five months. Analysts are now saying it\u2019s unlikely that Vladimir Putin can accomplish one of his chief aims: annexing the Donbas by force.\n\nAndrea Kendall-Taylor is the director of the trans-Atlantic security program at the Center for a New American Security. She\u2019s a former intelligence officer who, from 2015 to 2018, led strategic analysis on Russia at the National Intelligence Council. When we spoke, she was recently back from a trip to Ukraine. And she believes that the long-term trends favor a Ukrainian victory.\n\nIn this conversation, Kendall-Taylor helps me understand this watershed moment in the war. We discuss why Ukraine\u2019s recent counteroffensive was so significant; how it and other recent developments have hampered Russian morale, manpower and weapons supply; whether sanctions are really influencing Russia\u2019s strategy, and how sanctions might get worse; how this conflict is profoundly changing Europe; whether this recent turn of events signals a possible Ukrainian victory; why \u201cpersonalist dictators\u201d like Putin can be so dangerous when backed into a corner; how likely it is that we\u2019ll see stalemate or settlement negotiations in the near future; how Kendall-Taylor rates the likelihood of various outcomes; what we should expect in the next phase of the war and more.\n\nMentioned:\n\n\u201cUkraine Holds the Future\u201d by Timothy Snyder\n\n\u201cThe Russia-Ukraine War at Six Months\u201d by Adam Tooze\n\nRecommendations:Stalin: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928 by Stephen Kotkin\n\nTwitter Accounts to Follow for Russia-Ukraine War Analysis:\n\nMichael Kofman\n\nRob Lee\n\nMick Ryan\n\nThe Institute for the Study of War\n\nThoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.\n\nYou can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of \u201cThe Ezra Klein Show\u201d at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.\n\n\u201cThe Ezra Klein Show\u201d is produced by Annie Galvin and Rog\xe9 Karma. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, Mary Marge Locker and Kate Sinclair. Original music by Isaac Jones. Mixing by Sonia Herrero, Isaac Jones and Carole Sabouraud. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin, Kristina Samulewski and Emma Ashford.