I Dont Quite Buy the DeSantis Narrative, and Other Midterm Thoughts

Published: Nov. 10, 2022, 10 a.m.

The results of Tuesday\u2019s midterm elections are still trickling in, but the broader story is clear: The red wave that many anticipated never materialized. Republicans gained 54 House seats against Bill Clinton in 1994 and 63 seats against Barack Obama in 2010. It doesn\u2019t look as though the G.O.P. will secure anything close to that in 2022, and Democrats could retain their narrow control of the Senate \u2014 all against the backdrop of raging inflation and low approval ratings for President Biden.\n\nWhy didn\u2019t Democrats get wiped out? Why did so many Republicans underperform while others, like Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, won decisively? And what does it all imply for 2024?\n\nTo talk through the midterm results and their implications, I am joined by my column\u2019s editor, Aaron Retica. We discuss why this election ended up being so shockingly close; how Democrats\u2019 performance could, paradoxically, make it harder for Biden to win in 2024; why the significance of DeSantis\u2019s victory is probably being overhyped; why inflation didn\u2019t seem to matter nearly as much to the elections\u2019 outcomes as most analysts believed it would; how a possible DeSantis-Donald Trump fight in the 2024 Republican primaries could create electoral space for more traditional Republicans to break through; John Fetterman\u2019s distinct working-class appeal in Pennsylvania, the moral calculus of Democrats\u2019 decision to bolster extreme Republican candidates in the primaries; the uncertain future of American democracy and more.\n\n(Note: This episode was recorded on the afternoon of Wednesday, Nov. 9.)\n\nMentioned:\n\nThe Bitter End by John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch and Lynn Vavreck\n\n\u201cHillary Clinton Accepted Her Loss, but a Lot Has Changed Since 2016\u201d\xa0by Lynn Vavreck\n\n\u201cRepublicans Have Made It Very Clear What They Want to Do if They Win Congress\u201d by Ezra Klein\n\n"What It Means to Be Kind in a Cruel World" by The Ezra Klein Show\n\nPodcast Recommendations:\n\nThe Prince: Searching for Xi Jinping (The Economist)\n\nOdd Lots (Bloomberg)\n\nVolts (David Roberts)\n\nEKS Episode Recommendations:\n\n\u201cThese Political Scientists Surveyed 500,000 Voters. Here Are Their Unnerving Conclusions.\u201d by The Ezra Klein Show\n\n\u201cA Powerful Theory of Why The Far Right is Thriving Across the Globe\u201d by The Ezra Klein Show\n\n\u201cDonald Trump Didn\u2019t Hijack the G.O.P. He Understood It.\u201d by The Ezra Klein Show\n\nAaron's essay recommendation:\n\n"The Paranoid Style in American Politics" by Richard Hofstadter\n\nThoughts? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com. (And if you\u2019re reaching out to recommend a guest, please write \u201cGuest Suggestion\u201d in the subject line.)\n\nYou can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of \u201cThe Ezra Klein Show\u201d at\xa0nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at\xa0https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.\n\n\u201cThe Ezra Klein Show\u201d is produced by Emefa Agawu, Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Rog\xe9 Karma. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, Rollin Hu, Kristin Lin and Kate Sinclair. Original music by Isaac Jones. Mixing by Jeff Geld and Sonia Herrero. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin and Kristina Samulewski.