b'As we enter the fourth week of Russia\\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, many of the possible pathways this conflict could take are terrifying. A military quagmire that leads to protracted death and suffering. A Russian takeover of Kyiv and installation of a puppet government. An accidental strike on Polish or Romanian territory that draws America and the rest of NATO into war. Or, perhaps worst of all, a series of escalations that culminates in nuclear exchange.\\n\\nBut one possibility carries a glimmer of hope. This week, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators began talks on a tentative peace plan \\u2014 one that would involve Ukraine abandoning its attempts to join NATO and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry, in exchange for Western security guarantees and a Russian troop withdrawal. We\\u2019re still far from any kind of definitive settlement \\u2014 and there are legitimate concerns over whether Putin would accept any kind of deal at this point \\u2014 but it\\u2019s a start.\\n\\nEmma Ashford is a senior fellow with the New American Engagement Initiative at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, and a member of the school of foreign policy thinking known as \\u201crealism.\\u201d Realists view international relations as a contest between states for power and security; they tend to focus less on the psychologies and ideologies of individual leaders and more on the strategic self-interest of the parties involved. It\\u2019s an imperfect framework but a useful one \\u2014 especially when it comes to analyzing what it would take to achieve a successful negotiation or settlement.\\n\\nSo I invited Ashford on the show to help me think through the different trajectories the conflict could take \\u2014 and what the West can do to make de-escalation more likely. We also discuss John Mearsheimer\\u2019s argument that the West\\u2019s effort to expand NATO bears responsibility for Putin\\u2019s invasion, why Ashford isn\\u2019t particularly worried about the possibility of Russian cyberattacks on the West, how Western sanctions blur the line between war and peace, whether NATO\\u2019s efforts to supply Ukraine with weapons might backfire, why sanctions might not hurt Russian elites as much as Western leaders hope and how this conflict is changing the geopolitical calculus of countries like Germany, China and India.\\n\\nBook recommendations:\\n\\nThe Economic Weapon by Nicholas Mulder\\n\\nNot One Inch by M.E. Sarotte\\n\\nThe Sleepwalkers by Christopher Clark\\n\\nThoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.\\n\\nYou can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of \\u201cThe Ezra Klein Show\\u201d at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.\\n\\n\\u201cThe Ezra Klein Show\\u201d is produced by Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Rog\\xe9 Karma; fact-checking by Michelle Harris, Mary Marge Locker and Kate Sinclair; original music by Isaac Jones; mixing by Jeff Geld; audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Our executive producer is Irene Noguchi. Special thanks to Kristin Lin and Kristina Samulewski.'