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Welcome to the seventh edition of our podcast series: Talking Data, which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets.
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\\nOur podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. In today\\u2019s installment, Jim will provide his insight on the bond market.
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\\n\\u2022 How quiet is the bond market?
\\n- Tightest range in history
\\n- Lowest measures of volatility ever
\\n- Ignoring commodities
\\n- Ignoring other markets (the VIX)
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\\n\\u2022 Why so low?
\\n- The Fed\'s massive QE
\\n- Promises to not raise rates for three years
\\n- Potential yield curve control by the Fed
\\n- Quiet inflation
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\\n\\u2022 What gets it moving?
\\n- A serious "risk off" event - on par with this spring.
\\n- A big recovery in the economy (vaccine and return to normal)
\\n- A rise in expected inflation
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\\n\\u2022 What does more bond market volatility mean?
\\n- If volatility comes via falling yields, a market signal that a serious economy decline is coming.
\\n- If volatility is via rising yields, a market signal that inflation is returning... so much so that the Fed might have to reconsider no rate hikes for three years.
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\\nFor further information please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com.