Two Seeking Alpha analyses of the shale-oil industry, one from Kevin Wilson and the other from Andrew Butter, provide much insight and yet, one of them is quite grim and the other sanguine about the opportunities ahead. This podcast (7:19) suggests why it is that commodities investments that tend to long-term returns of zero are so tempting; why the success of such speculation is determined by timing, which is next to impossible to figure out; and what criteria investors should look for in a small, speculative play. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices