Senior campaigns and elections editor Steve Shepard is out with the latest update of POLITICO\u2019s 2022 forecast.\nLet\u2019s begin with the headline: Five races are changing in this update, four of them in the GOP\u2019s direction and one toward the Democratic candidate:\n\nArizona Senate: Lean D to Toss-Up\n\nPennsylvania governor: Lean D to Likely D\n\nCA-27: Toss-Up to Lean R\n\nCA-49: Lean D to Toss-Up\n\nOR-05: Toss-Up to Lean R\n\nSteve joins the show to break down the methodology behind the shifts and what else he's keeping an eye on with less than two weeks until Election Day.\xa0\nSubscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter\nRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.