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Let\u2019s start with Joe Biden.\xa0\nA midterm is a referendum on the president. By all historic measures, voters should have handed Biden\u2019s party a massive rebuke. Inflation is at historic levels, crime is up, Biden\u2019s approval is underwater, Democrats have one-party control. The party of recent presidents in similar circumstances lost between 40 and 63 House seats.\nAnd yet here\u2019s where things stand this morning:\n\u2014 In the House, Republicans are expected to gain control the chamber, but well short of both historical averages and pre-election predictions. Addressing supporters early this morning \u2014 hours after Republicans thought they would have victory in hand \u2014 Kevin McCarthy could only promise, \u201cWhen you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority.\u201d (Like his prior prediction that Republicans would gain 60 seats, that, too, has failed to pan out.)\n\u2014 In the Senate, the outcome hinges on Nevada, where incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto fell behind her GOP challenger Adam Laxalt this morning, and Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is ahead by a hair but the race is likely headed for a runoff on Dec. 6. Republicans need to win both races to take control of the Senate. (Wisconsin and Arizona haven\u2019t been called, but the incumbents \u2014 Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Mark Kelly, respectively \u2014 are ahead in both states.)\nMany of the (plausible) outcomes predicted by top GOP officials didn\u2019t materialize. There was no massive shift of the Hispanic vote toward the GOP. There was no surge of hidden Trump voters. There was no widespread takeover of deep blue House territory. There was no expansion of the Senate map into New Hampshire, Colorado and Washington, where incumbent Democrats cruised to reelection. The governor of New York won easily.\nThere was no red wave.\xa0\nSubscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter\nRaghu Manavalan is the Host and Senior Editor of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.