It\u2019s time to adjust your expectations for November.\nFor weeks, pundits have homed in on the special election in New York\u2019s 19th Congressional District as a national bellwether. The seat is a true toss-up \u2014 one of those rare districts won by Barack Obama in 2012, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 \u2014 and the national parties responded appropriately, sending in huge sums of money and organizational resources to win it.\xa0\nThe race would offer a trial run of the parties\u2019 general election messages. Democrat Pat Ryan's \u201cads hammered on the need to elect a representative who would fight for abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court\u2019s June decision undoing Roe v. Wade,\u201d writes Bill Mahoney, while Republican Marc Molinaro's campaign \u201ccentered on crime and inflation.\u201d\nLast night, Ryan defeated Molinaro.\nSubscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter\nRaghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.