How we predict elections
Scott Bland is POLITICO\u2019s national politics editor and leading all of POLITICO\u2019s 2022 midterm coverage. To do it, he has a team of about 15 reporters around the country following campaigns.\xa0\xa0\nDespite the cooling temperatures, this is when people like Bland start to sweat.\xa0\nHis job is to ensure readers and listeners aren\u2019t surprised on election night \u2014 that POLITICO has considered and reported on all possible outcomes, including the outliers \u2014 those black swan scenarios with seemingly low probabilities. Not just the most likely ones, according to conventional wisdom.\nThe specter of 2016 still haunts newsrooms.\xa0\nBland and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza dissect how 2016 midterm misses can be applied lessons for reporters covering the 2022 elections. Bland also weighs in on pressing questions like; what are the chances of Democrats winning the House while the Republicans take the Senate? Could all of those allegedly flawed Trump-backed candidates sweep their races? And could Biden be the first President since 2002 to avoid a party defeat in the first-midterm election?\nRyan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Scott Bland is the national politics editor for POLITICO.Afra Abdullah is associate producer for POLITICO audio.Kara Tabor is producer for POLITICO audio.Brook Hayes is senior editor for POLITICO audio.Adam Allington is senior producer for POLITICO audio.Jenny Ament is executive producer for POLITICO audio.\n\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices